April 29, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Dixieland Dream | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dianna’s Jet | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ancient Brown | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Out Ona Limb | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kitty’s Promise | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Her Giant | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | West Coast Temple | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cirrusly | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paulette | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Absolute Love | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She Wants More | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Foreign Exchange | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Patti Patti Patti | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Longleggedlaverne | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tea Olive | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gunite | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Twenty Four Mamba | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vidal | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Redwhiteblue | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Anotherworldinside | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Lt. Finn | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eli | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thelonious | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Ms V Time | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | What Goes On Tour | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Breonna | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | My Girl Lexi | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fandancer | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | A Little Flyer | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Double Dare You | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 5 | Will E Sutton | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 2 | Advanced Placement | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 1 | Abdan | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 3 | Bakwena | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 4 | Rogue Element | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Win Worthy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Project Thunder | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | City Tavern | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Dolder Grand | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Buckets of Rain | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | February Son | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Tallis | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Awakened | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Potus | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Dance Some Mo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Keep Your Distance | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Radiantrithym | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gianna’s Gift | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Centerfold Angel | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Solar Kitten | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Wynter Rose | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Borracho | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Luck of the Draw | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Futile | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Leader of Men | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chasin Charlie | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tez | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Almashriq | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Opening Verse Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sayyaaf | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Logical Myth | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Snapper Sinclair | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Set Piece (GB) | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gray’s Fable | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spectacular Gem | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Captivating Moon | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sugoi | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Epic Dreamer | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Skinny Dip | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Primacy | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Break Curfew | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Listen Up | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tappin Into Summer | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbina | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shez Stuck Up | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Unbridled Sidney S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Oleksandra (AUS) | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Change of Control | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Into Mystic | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Elle Z | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Foxxy Belle | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Grace | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Winning Envelope | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Yes It’s Ginger | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | She’sonthewarpath | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | A Bit of Both | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jakarta | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ambassador Luna | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Fashionable Lady | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | No Obligation | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lemon and Diem | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bold Adventure | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eagle Cap | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Desoto’s War | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stud Puppy | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Will | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mr Ghost | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Gold Endeavor | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.