April 24, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cumberland Avenue | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Union | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mahomes Money | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Samurai Prince | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Citi Charm | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Jail House Code | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vida Yellow | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Menzel | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Half Legend | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stanchion | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ready N Waiting | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Relentless Dancer | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lastchanceatglory | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Land Battle | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Bella Brown | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lonely Private | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Girl Rocket | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Negra Noche | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Dark Secret | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sacred Storm | 1.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Pinkerton | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Isabelle’s Joy | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Flattery | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Parrot Head | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Launch Pad | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Musk | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Thunderstruck | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Design | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Giro d’Oro | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sir Giannis | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Extreme Force | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Convection | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | He’s a Babe | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rye Humor | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Knox | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | War Savvy | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gershwin | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fortuity | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | La La Land (IRE) | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Motagally | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bullseye Bun | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Notable Exception | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Manitowish | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Attorney Tim | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Gagoots | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tulfarris (GB) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hellorhighwater | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Majestic West | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | D’oro Forever | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Laska | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zuri | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honor Hop | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Queen Bourbon | 1.20 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hostile Princess | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Waiting On William | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Red Bee | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – William Walker S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Roderick | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Into the Sunrise | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unitedandresolute | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cees Get Degrees | 50.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rockstar Ro | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lookin for Loki | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Field Day | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kasim | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bodenheimer | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Next | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cowan | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Charles Chrome | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tipsy Gal | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Rocket | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sterling Miss | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Aunt Nadine | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Anna | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bayerness | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Recoded | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | She Can’t Sing | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cause I’m Edgy | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.