April 23, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Napa Spirit (IRE) | 1.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magniloquent | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jack Backed | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Liveryman | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Creative Kid | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baytown Warrior | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Grumpa | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | On Spot | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Code Clear | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cheyenne Wind | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Headline Report | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Warrior Worrier | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Cachirulo | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | La Belleza Negra | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Conagher | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | John’s Protoege | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Icy River | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Modesto | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wild for Wycliff | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | After Five | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brew Crew | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vassar’s Boy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Three Amigos (FR) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Looting | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carmichael | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Annoying | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Skyro | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Queen Bee | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Signify | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Spin | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Until Now | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hollywood Gina | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Floriform | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Blue Cat | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Crew Dragon | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Donegal Bay | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Catman | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Cellist | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kobla Mas | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shady McGee (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Private Island | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Puye Timing | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Speightful Charge | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ann in the Middle | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Bets | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’ll Make It Coach | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Celestial Spin | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ocean Atlantique | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stanford (IRE) | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kentucky Ghost | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Botswana | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Current | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Conviction Trade | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Battalion | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bakers Bay | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Our Closure | 50.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Buffalo Shuffle | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Sibelius | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Yearn for Victory | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Casual Affair | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sams Time | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Suppressor | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Majestic Summer | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bayou Gem | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Niagara Skyline | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Never Explain | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bright Prospecter | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Out Work’n | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 2 | Tall Timber | 15.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 14A | 12 | Kolsch | 15.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bewitch S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kalifornia Queen (GER) | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dominga | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delta’s Kingdom | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dalika (GER) | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | War Like Goddess | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Three Flamingos | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pass the Plate | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cambeliza | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Court Return | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | English Affair | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gun Society | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Margaret’s Joy | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tallaj | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Title Shot | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | American Union | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Poseidon Wrath | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jedrek | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Texas Playboy | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gold Czar | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.