April 22, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ruthin (GB) | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pammy’s Ready | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Diva Dixie | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Artos (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Chamita | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Promptly Done | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Rock Along | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Baytown Lyla | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | U So Money Baby | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | A Lot to Like | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Three Point Kuz | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Vomba | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Extra Effort | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Erv’s Wench | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shi O’Shi | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Field Daisey | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3 | Cartel Queen | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Golden Bell | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Marlin Quay | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Baytown Valleygirl | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Guajira | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tranquil Times | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Why Behave | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jazzy Lady | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Talking Book | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tasaamuh | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Candy Flower | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | First Course | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sursum Corda | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ya Beauty (GB) | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tootsie | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Zanesville | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Subdued | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blue Steel | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Till Then | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Forecastle | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Congrats This | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Valycove | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tres Equis | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Valletta | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Curly Ruth | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Family Way | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | How Ironic | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Witez | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Niceno | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Naomi Broadway (BRZ) | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queen Bridget | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gamblin Train | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tweety Show | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Court Return | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Alnaseem (GB) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Our Closure | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Microcap | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Loving Moment | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Miss Imperfection | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Stand by You | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Honorably | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | In a Dream | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Poetic Honor | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Apart of My Charm | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Sea Song | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Goodnight Olive | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Rules for Us | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Texas Melody | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lovemesomeme | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Coed | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 5 | Beyond a Million | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Our Eva | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Termsandconditions | 30.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stunning Sky | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Daddy Is a Legend | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frond | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Summer in Saratoga | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Temple City Terror | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Winter Sunset | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Bay B Ruth | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sally’s Curlin | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Figure It Out | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Coal Shaft | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Frosted | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Village Queen | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Happylife | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sister’s Ghost | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pettigo Girl | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Enchanted Island | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lizqueenfluerdelis | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ma Cherie | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lemos Cunha | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.