April 21, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Winners Club | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | High Tide | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Job Security | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Yamato | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tallestofthetall | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lake Nakuru | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Crown the Prince | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Golden Curl | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yes I’m Evil | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Subiaco | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Resurrection Road | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spun Eazy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6 | Realm of Law | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Incitatus | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Emphasize | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready to Pounce | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sergeant Strwberry | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beduin Fighter | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Charger | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiger Shark | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Win Worthy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Prairie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | American Drama | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | City Tavern | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bester | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Front Man | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Can’tbetemall | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hard Sting | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hemp Heaven | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kickin’ Kirby | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Arareco Lake | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Snow House | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Pregame | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Purple Dream | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Runninforcover | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tango Tango Tango | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lavish McTavish | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Weather Prayer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dance Some Mo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Find New Roads | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | February Son | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | King of Miami | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Commodore Perry | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Happy American | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Dogwoods Cosby | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | I’m Intrigued | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Good Juju | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Adara | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Excursion | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tiz the Journey | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Valentino Daze | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sir Nuisance | 50.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Winning Prospect | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4 | Tiz Splendid News | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forever Boss | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Il Malocchio | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Ms Wicked | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reina Del Sol | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Girl’s On Fire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Viburnum | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Go Big Green | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | American West | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Tesorina | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fine Prospecture | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cardioversion | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mending | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cha Cha Mission | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shirley Greene | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Granite Candy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Lauren | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Especially You | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amber Waves | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Watermark | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.