April 18, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mummy Dearest | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Fair | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speed Lane | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cruz Bay | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flatter Me Silly | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Speightstown Shirl | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Chipshire | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scarlett Lace | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Incessant | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hostile Princess | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Justinthenickotime | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smiling Silas | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beniah | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Sense | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tamanrassett | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sequin | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dixieincandyland | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catch a Bid | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Karak | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Queen of Shades | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amazima | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rising Seas | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Overbore | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8B | 5 | Baytown Frosty | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11A | 8 | Trebbiano | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Ask the Umpire | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Offaly Fast | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tejano Twist | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Storm Sequence | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | La Flecha | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Bell | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Teo Mateo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5B | 5 | Baytown Jakester | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Fleet Kiss | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Thunder Buggy | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Artistic Jewler | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Camellia Gal | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Candy Girl | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hat Tip | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hey Kitten | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fashion Icon | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skyvalue | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tempereya | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Paynterbynumbers | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Lady Jenneviere | 50.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shippingport | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alfie Solomons | 0.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | First Deputy | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mobeatyabad | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twinkling Knight | 50.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amani’s Kitten | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Kingpin | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Oak Hill | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star of Kodiak | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Connector | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | American Mandate | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shackleford’s Joy | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Souper Dormy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Verb | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Sovereign Change | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Golden Spoke | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pitaman | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Whiskey Plank | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cant Stop This Man | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr. Walsh | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Struttinbuck | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Epimythium | 30.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Kick Some Tale | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morethansoultitle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Scary Larry | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Okie Roughneck | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Commanders Palace | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nevisian Sunrise | 1.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ms Temptation | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Workout | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Maria’s Revenge | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Take a Peak | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fayette Blue | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kitsie | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Confident | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Empire Trolley | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.