April 17, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Super Sol | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hold Me Black | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fire Marshall Bill | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bless the Kitten | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chasin Charlie | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Gray Blur | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ashaar | 0.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Portos | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Reserve | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Working Title | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Knox | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | American Goddess | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Megan’s Clara | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Let Them Eat Cake | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Six Feet Apart | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dynamite Gift | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Differentbutok | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nota Bene | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pictorial | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Some Nights | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Shirley Greene | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Candy Anne | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | War Empress | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bless Em | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Dior | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Emmyrates | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Graciana | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Paulas Game | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sacre Bleu | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mini Dress | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | She’s Outta Here | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jail House Code | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | News Break | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Exult | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Summer Palace | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Casanova Kitten | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cane Creek Road | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Majestic Ro | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A. K. Safari | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fieldstone | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Kick | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Awesome Wok N Roll | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tallestofthetall | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Copper King | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Motagally | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Blueridge Mountain | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Killer Bee | 50.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | The Humongous One | 50.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Diamond State | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pledgeofallegiance | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jerry’s Secret | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Derby Date | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Captain Hank | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coffee Break | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magician’s Holiday | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eye of the Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Chili Petin | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Strong Odor | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Song River | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Notorious R B G | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | More | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ready for Change | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brooke Marie | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No Way Jose (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Violenza | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heaven Escape | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | South Bend | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Mesa | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Empty Tomb | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mighty Heart | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top Seed | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Final Jeopardy | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Code Runner | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Elkhorn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Say the Word | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tide of the Sea | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Red Knight | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Epic Bromance | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | North Dakota | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Crafty Daddy | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Channel Cat | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fantasioso (ARG) | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cross Border | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Finnegan (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | High Five Cotton | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nice Work | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Can’t Say No | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kate’s Golden Dude | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Loopallu | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Celtic Mischief | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | State Treasurer | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | My Girl Rocket | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 14A | 12 | North Elkhorn | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Testy Kitten | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Big Coulee | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Red Blue and True | 50.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rivers of Lite | 50.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.