April 16, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Language Barrier | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Two Worlds | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Double Tough Tiger | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mobster Gun | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Beat | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saint Vrain | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bye Bye Bertie | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Keep Your Distance | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady of Luxury | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ginormous | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Foreign Exchange | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Persisto | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Xtrema | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tynan | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shelley’s Gem | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stylish Ash | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Deferred Taxes | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Feeding Frenzy | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Penicillin Success | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Optimal Trip | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Boss Is a Pal | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Accredit | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shaldag | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Congratulated | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mo Clare’s | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Happylife | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sofia Strong | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Liberty Isle | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Callie’s Candy | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Jill Babe | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Sirjus Dream | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Master Piece (CHI) | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Admiralty Pier | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Talk Or Listen (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bandua | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jais’s Solitude | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Factor This | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Hay Dakota | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Wora | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Therideofalifetime | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Subsidize | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Red Ghost | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Etched in Stone | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shackleford Strong | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Be Here | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Medicine Tail | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wellman | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pretty Boy Elm | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Southern Mama | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Senora Roma | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Never Forget | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jades Gelly | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Veruca | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ghosting Kim | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zero to Sixty | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lexintonia | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dawn’s Dancer | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Girl Named Patsy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sister Otoole | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | My Sweet Kat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Olho de Mel | 50.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Baird Doubledogdare S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Speech | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bonny South | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Flag | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eres Tu | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Graceful Princess | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Regard | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bajan Girl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Scarlet Fusion | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mubtadaa | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rustler | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alpha Predator | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prince Maior | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Duke | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beocca | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Happy American | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.