April 15, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Royal County | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Texas Tiara | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Averly Jane | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | She’s a Fast One | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | She’s So Shiny | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Alia Max | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Van Sickle | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Lady Nelson | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Burning Desire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pirate Rick | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oceanic | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ready to Answer | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Maximiliano | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thrill Ride | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Searing Chase | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Land Mark Deal | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stage Left | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Ding Ding | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kaufymaker | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Bode by You | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Midsummer Nights | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Landslid | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Secret Moment | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tough Enough | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Violent Move | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tea Olive | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Don’t Mine Me | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Richies Noble Girl | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Saintsation | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mon Cherie | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Conoloway | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blonde by Nature | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Willemina | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Greyes Creek | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Midnight Tea Time | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Artie’s Rumor | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Imperador (ARG) | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Argentello (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bye Bye Melvin | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Spanish Kingdom | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Troubling Moon | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Perfect Speighty | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Summer Assault | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Split the Wickets | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bandua | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bizzee Channel | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Abdan | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Knopfler | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sometimes Always | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Plutonium | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | French Toast | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Devoted to You | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bugler | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Island Boy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Joker On Jack | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Edgemont Road | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maven | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boldor | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bad Beat Brian | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Guildsman (FR) | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Another Miracle | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smart Remark | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Went West | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | R Working Girl | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Inject | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sa Foradada | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mischiefful | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dealing Justice | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Marley | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Choctaw Bingo | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Flippant | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coastana | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Admaa | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Maid of Honor | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shush | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ballymore Star (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kind Ways | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Curly Wurly | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zza Zza Zoom | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Colonel Aby B | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.