April 14, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Champagne Toast | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dramatizer | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sunny Isle Beach | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Time for Glory | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | A Little Flyer | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Matt’s Honey | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Kaza | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Positive Vibes | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bettyb | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | War Eagle’s Love | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Moira | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maria Rose | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mubarmaj | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Someday Jones | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Peekacho | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Olympic Romp | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Beautiful Wall | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our Alibi | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Peck | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Nakatomi | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Happy Soul | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Knocker Down | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Warrior Worrier | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Baytown Warrior | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lt. Finn | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Cheyenne Wind | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 2B | 11 | Valiant Charge | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 6 | About to Rage | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Angusonic | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | San Costantino | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 10 | Jr’s Gift | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Atta Boy Anthony | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 4 | Mylastfirstkiss | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 3 | Peter’s Kitten | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 2 | Stand Tall | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 1 | Linny Kate | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sunset Kiss (GB) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | I Hear You | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Talking Book | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tasaamuh | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Take Charge Ro | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Vezpa (BRZ) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lake Lucerne | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ballymore Star (IRE) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Legendary Gift | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Seascape | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Deemed Essential | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | High Fashion | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Take Charge Patti | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Runaway Mom | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Causeway Princess | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tone My Betty | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Living for Today | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 3 | His Glory | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Final Cut | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stunning Sky | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Amazima | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Alnaseem (GB) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Winter Sunset | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Temple City Terror | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Inspector Frost | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Petit Verdot | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Magic Carpet | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kierkegaard | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Verified | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fast Bob | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hats Off too You | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Raphael | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Autopilot | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.