April 11, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Chi Town Lady | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diva Dixie | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tranquil Times | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Girl Steve | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Brash | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Party Next Door | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paolina | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jamaican Traffic | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Baytown Valleygirl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Holly Go Lightly | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | On Deck | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shasta Star | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Its Cold in Dehere | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Black Kettle | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Centerfold Angel | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Simply Beguiled | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Talk Radio | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Share My Moon | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bertrada | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | How Lucky | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Indian Nichols | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Dame | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Queen Louise | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coupon | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fairchild | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magic Ride | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dearest Kitten | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tracy Flick | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tayet | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Naked On the Beach | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rosalita | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eida’s Storm | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Banks Island | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dean Martini | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Noren | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Get the Prize | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bybee | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bourre’ Trick | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speight and Malice | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Breezy Money | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Screenplay | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Convection | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sponsored | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | All the Diamonds | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Orb of the Boro | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Thunderstruck | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Marvelousmoondance | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Southern Will | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 4 | 4 | John Edward | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Starting Over | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Juulstone | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Glynn County | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ready Soul | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buy Me Candy | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beachwalker | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cibolian | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blanket of Roses | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Carmel Bay | 50.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Motagally | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mo Reserve | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | El Ahijado | 50.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Palace Avenger | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Call On Mischief | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ain’t No Elmers | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Anna’s Fast | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Club Car | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frond | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dancefortheempire | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Black Sand (GB) | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bitten by Kitten | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Picasso Collection | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mischevious Mel | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Ginger Queen (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Robin’s Fantasy | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Jawhara | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dalida | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Sweet Story | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.