April 11, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Always Carina | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Before You | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | After the Party | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Venus Oyzo | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amendment Nineteen | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | As It Should Be | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Brush Country | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Justin Front | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Macho Jack | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eagle Pass | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tale of Mist | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Frankie Barone | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dynamax Prime | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mac’s Revolution | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Playwright | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Deep Sea | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Scarf It Down | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hawaiian Noises | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Fidget | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Real Dan | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Plenty Of Grace S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Call Me Love (GB) | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kilkea | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Flashndynamite | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Regal Glory | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Counterparty Risk (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Turn | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Myhartblongstodady | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Platinum Paynter | 15.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Daria’s Angel | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Xanthique | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rainbow Gal | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Larissa | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Raffinity | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ob La Di | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cazilda Fortytales | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bella Domenica | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bella Principessa | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bustin Stones Up | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Blind Sight | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Normandy | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tiergan | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Too Early | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Therisastormbrewin | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Three Jokers | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Financialstability | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Devil’s Code | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magnetron | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Macho Boy | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | The Big S | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Brunate | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Varangian | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Spitball | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Blues City | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ask Neal | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Have a Heart | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Joint and Several | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gratto Swing | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Our American Star | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Durkin’s Call | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Ark in the Dark | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Caretaker | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Popizar | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | David’s Gem | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Batterbatterswing | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Full Salute | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kosciuszko | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Decreed | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Devil On the Loose | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Tiny Magoo | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Happy Hill Lil | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Big Tony’s Girl | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Starship Kiara | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Wish for Magic | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Chilly Choos | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bustin Shuffle | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Roxen | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Captivating Cara | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.