April 10, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Best of Greeley | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Get Hammered | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | City Drifter | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Artemus Citylimits | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smart Time | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Grove Daddy | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Baby I’m Perfect | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Money for Mischief | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zanesville | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Walkoff | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saintly Samurai | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Americain Joey | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Revenio | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tez | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Turnagain Tide | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Atoka | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winning Prospect | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Extreme | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rare Stripe | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Call It Love | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Assembly Point (BRZ) | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stonecastle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Fulsome | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ethical Judgement | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aviano | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hard Strike | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Notary | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | British Royalty | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Floriform | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Private Island | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bold Victory | 1.40 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Midlaner | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rogue Element | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Don’tshowweakness | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lemon and Diem | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Perfect Painting | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Launch Pad | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | King Zion | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | He Who Dares Wins | 50.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beau Book | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Count Your Pennies | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Adara | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | The Flasche | 50.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | West Will Power | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | In Love (BRZ) | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Lord Guinness | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Uncle Kick | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Almashriq | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Payne | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Noren | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Army Scout | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Blue Jays | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Ben Ali S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Night Ops | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Dust | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beau Luminarie | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Treasure Trove | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sprawl | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Giant’s Causeway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Jakarta | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Into Mystic | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elle Z | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In Good Spirits | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Change of Control | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oooh Barracuda | 50.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fashionable Lady | 50.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dixieincandyland | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | A Bit of Both | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Karak | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Stonestreet Lexington S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Proxy | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Starrininmydreams | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bezos | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unbridled Honor | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Noble Reflection | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Swiftsure | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | King Fury | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hockey Dad | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | It’s My House | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ultimate Badger | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Coolmore Jenny Wiley S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Micheline | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tamahere (FR) | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Etoile (FR) | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Signare (FR) | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maxim Rate | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Six Pack | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stage Raider | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Private Network | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Windcracker | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Harvard | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Road Bible | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cronus | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Complicate | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hope and Dignity | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Derby House | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Annoying | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sensible Jim | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.