Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 10, 2021

April 10, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Scuttlebuzz 1.80 1.6 3-1
2 2 Deputy Flag 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Disciplanarian 3.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Amistad 4.50 3.8 7-1
9 9 Red Mule 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Our Destiny 12.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Future Book 12.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Hudson Overpass 15.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Halstaat 20.00 9 17-1
5A 5 Florida Endeavour 15.00 9.2 17-1
8A 8 Dang It 15.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 False Alarm 20.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Zoikes (FR) 4.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Creative Cairo 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Miss Bonnie T 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Gabby Squared 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Mo Girl 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Harlem Heights 3.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Wow 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Strong Point 15.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Little Nutter 30.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Romp 2.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 American Gentleman 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Blu Grotto 5.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Respect for All 5.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Purple Hearted 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Centavo 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Jimmy the Kid 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Echoes of Destiny 15.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Re Created 20.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Guardian Moon 1.80 1.2 2-1
3 3 Fresco 2.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 More Glitter 6.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Snicket 4.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Moana’s Tale 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Caramocha 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Lune Lake 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Ifihadachance 30.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Top Flight Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Queen Nekia 4.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Horologist 1.40 1.8 3-1
4 4 Lucky Stride 3.50 2 4-1
3 3 Mrs. Danvers 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Thankful 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Flashndynamite 30.00 4.5 8-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Vettori Kin (BRZ) 2.50 2.5 5-1
13 13 Flowers for Lisa 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Gearhead 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Noble Thought 1.20 3.5 7-1
5 5 Supreme Aura 1.60 SCRATCH
4 4 King of Spades 4.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Danebury 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 American Lincoln 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Chief Know It All 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Castagno 15.00 6.1 12-1
12 12 Hero’s Hope 30.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Manifest Destiny 30.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Beta 50.00 9.2 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Yankee Division 1.60 1.5 3-1
3 3 Malibu Star 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Family Biz 5.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Kid Bourbon 10.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Aasr 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Texas Swing 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Arham 3.00 3 6-1
6 6 Ananroad 50.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Danger’s Hour S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zoomer 0.60 SCRATCH
8 8 Delaware (GB) 10.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Hieronymus 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Decorated Invader 2.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Price Talk 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Rinaldi 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Analyze It 1.40 2.9 6-1
6 6 Penalty 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Tiberius Mercurius 50.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hotel Charlie 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Micro Me 6.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Pave It 2.00 3 6-1
10 10 Kikkerland 3.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Joey Loose Lips 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Hangout 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Royal Kaz 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Bustin Bieber 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Flipping Fun 20.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Liquor 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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