Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 9, 2021

April 9, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Supply and Demand 2.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Absolute Courage 2.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Dazzle Time 1.80 2 4-1
6 6 Overexaggerate 10.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Lemon Drop Road 4.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Islandman 30.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6A 6 Micromillion 2.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Jara 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Lottie’s Mizzion 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Gringotts 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Mani Pedi 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Mebs Web 8.00 5 9-1
5A 5 Blitchton Lady 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Jack’s Dream 5.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Rogue Leader 6.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Me ‘n Sap 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Justintimeforwine 3.50 5.1 10-1
9 9 Kiss’n Mission 15.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Freudian Analyst 8.00 6 11-1
2 2 Dreampoint 12.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Giramonte 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Resilient Kindaguy 20.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Unlikely 20.00 9.7 18-1
13 13 Second Fortune 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ghostmon 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Pave It 2.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Hereby 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Simbasalltrouble 20.00 10.7 20-1
10 10 Production Credit 30.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 3 Social Group 0.80 1 2-1
1A 1 Indian Counselor 0.80 1.6 3-1
7 7 Tapizearance 3.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Tri Saint Lorenzo 4.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Latin Love Bug 8.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Liam’s Fire 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Not That Brady 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Life On Top 2.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 Mandate 3.50 3.8 7-1
12 12 Perceived 4.50 4.8 9-1
4 4 Future Victory 10.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Shootin the Breeze 8.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Simply 10.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Mr. Kringle 12.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Time to Testify 15.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Anzio Beach 20.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Bad Guy 15.00 9.8 19-1
10 10 Financialstability 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 First Line 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Therisastormbrewin 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 The Sinner Is You 15.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Savoy 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Cousin Andrew 1.60 2.6 5-1
1 1 Continuation 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Or’effice 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Royal Realm 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Goldenite 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Ajhar 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8A 8 Good Governance (GB) 0.80 1.3 2-1
3A 3 Price Talk 0.80 1.3 2-1
9 9 Emaraaty (GB) 3.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Bodecream 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Winters Back 3.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Danny California 30.00 6 11-1
6 6 Malthael 30.00 7 13-1
2 2 Acker 30.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Locally Owned 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 On the Muscle 3.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Centurion 4.50 2.9 6-1
5 5 Bourbon Rising 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Matty’s Marauder 8.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Sixteen Tons 5.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Kentucky Knight 10.00 5.8 11-1
13 13 Loaded Joe 10.00 6 11-1
12 12 Camouflaged Kisser 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Ratchet 15.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Thruster 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Ouch Ouch Ouch 15.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Confectioner 20.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Ocean Deep 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Doctor Doom 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tremendous 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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