April 9, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Supply and Demand | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Absolute Courage | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dazzle Time | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Overexaggerate | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lemon Drop Road | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Islandman | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Micromillion | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jara | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lottie’s Mizzion | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gringotts | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mani Pedi | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mebs Web | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Blitchton Lady | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jack’s Dream | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rogue Leader | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Me ‘n Sap | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Justintimeforwine | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kiss’n Mission | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Freudian Analyst | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dreampoint | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Giramonte | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Resilient Kindaguy | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Unlikely | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Second Fortune | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ghostmon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pave It | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Hereby | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Simbasalltrouble | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Production Credit | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Social Group | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Indian Counselor | 0.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tapizearance | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tri Saint Lorenzo | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Latin Love Bug | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Liam’s Fire | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Not That Brady | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Life On Top | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mandate | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Perceived | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Future Victory | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shootin the Breeze | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Simply | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Kringle | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Time to Testify | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Anzio Beach | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bad Guy | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Financialstability | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | First Line | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Therisastormbrewin | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | The Sinner Is You | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Savoy | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cousin Andrew | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Continuation | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Or’effice | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Realm | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Goldenite | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ajhar | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | Good Governance (GB) | 0.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Price Talk | 0.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Emaraaty (GB) | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bodecream | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winters Back | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Danny California | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Malthael | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Acker | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Locally Owned | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | On the Muscle | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Centurion | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Rising | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Matty’s Marauder | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sixteen Tons | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kentucky Knight | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Loaded Joe | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Camouflaged Kisser | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ratchet | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Thruster | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ouch Ouch Ouch | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Confectioner | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ocean Deep | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Doctor Doom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tremendous | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.