April 8, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 7 | Eagle Eye | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Destinique | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stylish Rags | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Artie’s Rose | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Pepper Grill | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hellcat Warrior | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It’sfiftyshadetime | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shesgotattitude | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twilight Gleaming (IRE) | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burrow Down | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Another Flat Drunk | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pout | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Murgatroyd | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smile At the Storm | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Action Potential | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Luna Fortuna | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Grandgran | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Franknjymme | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lastchanceatglory | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Surf and Turf | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Algebraic | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Afleet Moment | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chuckles Candy | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Diva Banker | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Radiantrithym | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Pinkerton | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Dark Secret | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Isabelle’s Joy | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trickizar | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Patti Patti Patti | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parking Ticket | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Copa | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scabbard | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Predicament | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Torin | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rye Humor | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One Nation | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Why Why Paul Why | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Beat | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Performing Arts | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Southern District | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alexander Valley | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Avenue | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sailor’s Return | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Freddy Flintshire | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | American Diamond | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Spoke | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cochise | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Seminole Beach | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | El Kabong | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Snow’s Island | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Sergeant Strwberry | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Wamego | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bakwena | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Charger | 30.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Good Culture | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Promise Keeper | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kinetic Sky | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior in Chief | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Core Values | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Plamen | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13A | 13 | Invader | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Silenced | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10A | 10 | Opry | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Ready | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bakers Bay | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Duke of Carthania | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ocean Atlantique | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fighting Seabee | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | On a Spree | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stage Ready | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bugle Barry | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Vintage Print | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | J W Ruckus | 50.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Perspective | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cornbread Hill | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | No Angel | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quality Warrior | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gunner Paul | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Giro d’Oro | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Vail of Honor | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | El Casadora | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Derby Date | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Nilsby | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.