February 28, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Antietam Road | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | War Rogue | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Win Won Dobbs | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shakin Silver | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | No Quarter | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | War Tribute | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Flashburn | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kasens Train | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Truth Teller | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Special Storm | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Abacus On Tap | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ms Satch Mo | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Faded Memories | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Outkickthecoverage | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Della Frost | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Trichrome | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Danger Zone | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flatteringapplause | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Taptime | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Masked Mandate | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Circleofsoul | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Martinized | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Everlovinghand | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rare Strain | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Diside | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | A Star Is Born Now | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Putthehammerdown | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Catinandscatin | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jourdan River | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cane Creek Road | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bryce Canyon | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ultimate Irony | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Smokey Harbor | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fieldstone | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Assumption | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Papaws Boy | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | O Dogg | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Kartano | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Two Worlds | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Magic Carpet | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grove Daddy | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Verified | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Daggers Arch | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Da Gold Room | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dublin Yinz Money | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2B | 8 | Yes It’s Ginger | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 7 | Dance Rhythms | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Millennium Force | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Chikara | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Luvin Bullies | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Lady of Luxury | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aiken to Be | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Cobra Casablanca | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Makealitlemischief | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Whimsical Muse | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Vehement | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hawk Tail | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Adeeb | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Eleventh Hour | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sangio Vasy | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hiccup | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Old Hat | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | White Mist | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ronnie’s Reasoning | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Windchill Zar | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Happy Day | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Reigning Spirit | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Defied | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Palace | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Intentional Walk | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Struttinbuck | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Freddy Flintshire | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silk Trade | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Weather Prayer | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Aphrodites Revenge | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spellbinding | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Speedy Dudette | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Mardi Gras | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Resposado | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Diamond Lady | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Maid | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Omahasetgeaux | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fasthappy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.