February 27, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Choose Happiness | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Happycrest | 1.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Make Or Break | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gringotts | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Imprsstheprofessor | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | First Dawn | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Syzygy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hollywood Gina | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Delicious | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lulinda’s Heart | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Absolute Privilege | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Patti D | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Madame Rose | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alpine Queen | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | One Glamorous Gal | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Stymie S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Musical Heart | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Buff | 0.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Limonite | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alwaysmining | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tintoretto (GER) | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10A | 10 | Cobble Hill | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Not That Brady | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tri Saint Lorenzo | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Financialstability | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tapizearance | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | No Lime | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Latin Love Bug | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beta | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kingfish | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kid Chocolate | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | One Whirlwind Ride | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Olympique | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dr. Blute | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Got the Gold | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Brown Shoes | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Forgotten Mission | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | What’s My Category | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Damilano | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tough Workout | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Judicial Restraint | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Suspect | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Macho Boy | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Quintarelli | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Have a Heart | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Judge Alexander | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Varangian | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Fidget | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Our American Star | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fotis | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dr Ardito | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Schokolade | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Man Mike | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Viking Zim | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Feathers Road | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scat Brat | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Three’s Trouble | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vincent | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Playwright | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Win With Pride | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tale of Mist | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Vicar’s Legend | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Direct Order | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Frankie Barone | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | O Shea Can U See | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hero’s Hope | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Orpheus (ARG) | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coltandmississippi | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Autostrade | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Swiping Dan | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Summer Bourbon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Laura’s Bellamy | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Sport Model | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Electric Youth | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blame It On Mary | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Larissa | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dorothy’s the Boss | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Handle the Truth | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Know It All Red | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tassi | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Black Panda | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Franny Lu | 20.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Thornhill | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.