February 21, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dreammaster | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hero of the Hour | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trivista | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ekaterinoslav | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Afleet Roger | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Humphrey | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | V Man | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Princesa Blanca | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wave of Goodness | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Erin’s Enthusiasm | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gauzy | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vita | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Somthingscandalous | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Diamond Lily | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gio’s Lil Angel | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bet Your Bankroll | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Gilded Apple | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Glitter Time | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Whodatwhodat | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Oma Lee | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Arancia | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Honduras Girl | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sandy’s Wager | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Adina | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Madison’s Place | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Military Bearing | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Patriot’s War | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smiling Silas | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Skip the Smalltalk | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Summer Tune | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magna Ride | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fiat Lux | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smoky Topaz | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Olympic Champion | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Mon Cherie | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Sweet Confusion | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 5 | Tiz a Queen | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Staceys Racey | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bella’s Choice | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | J Z’s First | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Brest Fortress | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Smackfire | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 9 | Dare to Hope | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Spycraft | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Uncapped | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Justinthenickotime | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hawk of War | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Doodle Time | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chantry Flats | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Talkin Malice | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Money Cometh | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Chelsea Bridge | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Half Koo Koo | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Taylor Avenue | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thetruthisthetruth | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Halfglamorous | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Clearly Sailing | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cilla | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Enduring Peace | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Amoreena Star | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Yankee Seven | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Homebred | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | A Song for Arch | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Picasso | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bad Beat Brian | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Merlin’s Song | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Land Mark Deal | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dreaming of Carats | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sir Truebadour | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Can Imagine | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Kansas | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | About Our Time | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Loopallu | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Biarritz | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wholeshackshimmies | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Langfuhr’s Angel | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Galaxy Star | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Puzzling Priority | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Custom Gulch | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Deezee Dial | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Song of Paradise | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Laurel’s Cricket | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Julia’s Chance | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Go My Juliet | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.