February 12, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kittenofthe Court | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kaitlyn’s Court | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fuhrcry | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Slewalyze | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Looking Hot | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Divided | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Bad Lil Boujee | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | My Girl Em | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Who Dat Grey | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Freedom Factor | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Laddie Boy | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Rock Me | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Greeley’s Banker | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | State Treasurer | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Tigerbeach | 10.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Channel Won | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Just Blaze | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Warriors Gem | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Western Trouble | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | More Abundance | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mane Priority | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maw Maw’s Sophia | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Crypto Brave | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Starlet | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stang It | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whodatwhodat | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Ridge Heat | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Iona Guitar | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Beautifulandwild | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Candy Candy Candy | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Musical Man | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Bayou Jam | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 7 | Jaci’s Royalty | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Standing Man | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2B | 8 | Inca Warrior | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Heza Priority | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Luckenbacher | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Richie Gary | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Pre Heat | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Ripittotheright | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Get the Prize | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boyfriend Material | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | On Your Mark | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mister K | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Elusive d’Oro | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kowboy Karma | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lafitte’s Fleet | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wandering West | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Unitedandresolute | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | A C Expressway | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Field Day | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin for Loki | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heza Way Maker | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Crime Spree | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Game Day Play | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Passageway | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Inner Ghost | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Chatter Box | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Bold Confection | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Empress Catherine | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pauline’s Pearl | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mucho Macho Momma | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Suki | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Closet Shopper | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dottie | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Watrugonnadokaren | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Latte Dolce | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cashew | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 9 | Musta Got Lost | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Kamara Vision | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Bitsy’s Other Half | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Irish Bayou | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Your Time’s Coming | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Totally Addicted | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Grand Priority | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Ballinonabudjet | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Degrasse | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Charlie G | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 10 | Sneaky Allie Kat | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Apache Tears | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Amavi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Smarty Alex | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Crown Me Jackson | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hotpin | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Li’l Tootsie | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Sister Annie | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Cantata | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Minute Waltz | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Social Dilemma | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Big Time | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Beautiful Star | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sariah Sariah | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She a Hot Mess | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Maystart | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Makeajoyfulnoise | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.