February 11, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bold Zarb | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sir Pokerface | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eatorbeeaten | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver King | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Striking Star | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss You Jo | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chambliss | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Guitar King | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Bellamy Cay | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Money Well Spent | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Savvy Shipman | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alliaceous | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lone Star Diva | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mila’s Gold | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Storied Trip | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Polk | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thegrayspider | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marywood | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bonita Springs | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Katie the Cutie | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Red Rose | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | As Fast as You Can | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Limage | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kenai Cool | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sundereya | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Spycraft | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncapped | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Justinthenickotime | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chantry Flats | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Talkin Malice | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Doodle Time | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Phraseologism | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lynchburg | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Da Gold Room | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Flags Up | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Double Tough Tiger | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pilot Prince | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gold Incense | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Filippo | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Saint Goar | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | River’s Raging | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Yankee Seven | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Picasso | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A Song for Arch | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Land Mark Deal | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tomato Bill | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dreaming of Carats | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sir Truebadour | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | O’L Red | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Biarritz | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Can Imagine | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bad Beat Brian | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Laddie Boy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | On Your Mark | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Boyfriend Material | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Olliemyboy | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cowboy Diplomacy | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Plus Que Parfait | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pit Boss | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Locally Owned | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Beautiful Wall | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Broth | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Natalie Would | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Shockingly | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ursulina | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ostracize | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Santa Rita | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Quality of Mercy | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sparkle of Hope | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Paytonsattheplate | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Arbitrary | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Coeur | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy in Eden | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Fortheloveoflydia | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mary of Bethany | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Glitterary | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Candywrapper Crazy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lindsylu | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bassett | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Truth Teller | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Theos Flew | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Starvictory | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Joeboy | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mucho Macho | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Yankee Clipper | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bigboyshowshart | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tensas Gold | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.