Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 11, 2021

February 11, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bold Zarb 3.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Sir Pokerface 3.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Eatorbeeaten 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Silver King 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Striking Star 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Miss You Jo 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Chambliss 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Guitar King 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Bellamy Cay 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 5 Money Well Spent 5.00 4 8-1
1 1 Savvy Shipman 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Alliaceous 3.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Lone Star Diva 8.00 5 9-1
8 7 Mila’s Gold 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 6 Storied Trip 8.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Fort Polk 8.00 7.1 13-1
9 8 Thegrayspider 12.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Marywood 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bonita Springs 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Katie the Cutie 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Big Red Rose 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 As Fast as You Can 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Limage 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Kenai Cool 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Sundereya 10.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Spycraft 4.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Uncapped 4.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Justinthenickotime 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Chantry Flats 5.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Talkin Malice 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Doodle Time 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Phraseologism 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lynchburg 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Da Gold Room 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Flags Up 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Double Tough Tiger 3.00 2 4-1
3 3 Pilot Prince 3.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Gold Incense 8.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Filippo 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Saint Goar 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 River’s Raging 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Yankee Seven 4.50 3 6-1
9 9 Picasso 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 A Song for Arch 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Land Mark Deal 6.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Tomato Bill 10.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Takafumi (BRZ) 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Dreaming of Carats 15.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Sir Truebadour 15.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 O’L Red 12.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Biarritz 12.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Can Imagine 20.00 10 19-1
2 2 Bad Beat Brian 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Laddie Boy 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 On Your Mark 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Boyfriend Material 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Olliemyboy 4.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Cowboy Diplomacy 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Plus Que Parfait 3.50 2 4-1
7 7 Pit Boss 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Locally Owned 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Big Beautiful Wall 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Broth 20.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Natalie Would 4.00 1.7 3-1
13 13 Shockingly 3.50 2.7 5-1
11 11 Ursulina 4.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Ostracize 5.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Santa Rita 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Quality of Mercy 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Sparkle of Hope 8.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Paytonsattheplate 8.00 7.1 13-1
12 12 Arbitrary 15.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Coeur 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Candy in Eden 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Fortheloveoflydia 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mary of Bethany 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Glitterary 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Candywrapper Crazy 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Lindsylu 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bassett 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Truth Teller 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Theos Flew 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Starvictory 4.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Joeboy 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Mucho Macho 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Yankee Clipper 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Bigboyshowshart 8.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Tensas Gold 20.00 6.3 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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