Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, February 7, 2021

February 7, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Atlantic Road 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Dream Big Dreams 3.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Will E Sutton 1.80 2 4-1
2 2 Nepotism 3.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Three Two Zone 10.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Run Smitty Run 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Minuteman (GER) 30.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Home Run Maker 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Zaevion 1.80 1.8 3-1
5 5 Clench 2.00 2 4-1
3 3 Runaway Lute 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Laddie Liam 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Batterbatterswing 20.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Ruthless S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Little Huntress 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Miss Brazil 1.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Gulf Coast 2.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Dealing Justice 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 It Can 30.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mo Desserts 1.20 1.3 2-1
6 6 O’Gotten Girl 0.80 1.9 3-1
3 3 Firing Carol 15.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Bravo Regina 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Handle the Truth 15.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Crystal Orb 30.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Violent Trick 2.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Excess Capacity 4.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Viradia 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Mongolian Humor 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Take Charge Tina 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Daria’s Angel 4.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Nasty Affair 12.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sirenic 4.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Cadeau de Paix 3.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Freedom Passage 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Princess Corey 2.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Miss Mi Mi 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Dancing Kiki 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Adhwaa 15.00 5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Backsideofthemoon 1.20 2.1 4-1
2 2 Someday Jones 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Empty Tomb 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Limonite 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Danny California 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 American Rule 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Acker 20.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Whyisshesoolucky 3.00 2.2 4-1
1A 1 Tanya’s Gem 4.50 2.4 4-1
9A 9 Dragoness 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Persian Queen 3.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Dirty Bird 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Rose Ring 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Molly’s Game 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Movie Score 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Zecha 20.00 7.3 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement providesĀ no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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