Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 30, 2021

January 30, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Loving Lucky 4.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Big Nick 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Birthday Party 4.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Directional 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Double Tough Tiger 4.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Texas Royalty 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Olympic Champion 12.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Matt’s Honey 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 All Fact 0.80 2.9 5-1
1 1 Yes I’m Evil 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Barbess 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 As Fast as You Can 6.00 5.2 10-1
9A 9 Glance 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Miss Brookside 20.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Marrazano 20.00 5.7 11-1
2A 2 Havinfunyet 12.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4A 3 Lemon Chill 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 1 Aimara 1.60 2.7 5-1
3 2 Orb’s Soul 6.00 2.9 5-1
9 6 Miss Commish 6.00 4 8-1
7 5 Bet Your Bankroll 12.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Runaway Dream 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Summer Express 20.00 SCRATCH
6A 6 Cold Hearted Wench 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Sharperthanme 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Smittys Patriarch 4.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Gypsy’s Soulmate 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Banquet Chef 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Fifty Protection 2.50 3 6-1
4 4 Apache Tears 8.00 4 8-1
9 9 Bunkie’s Song 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Yank Crime 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Stonecatcher 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Benbow Cat 20.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Make’n Tracks 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Pharaoh’s Kitten 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Adeeb 5.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 No Ka Oi 4.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Maga Country 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Range of Motion 8.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Easy to Miss 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Just Gun It 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Tapit’s Temple 20.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Summer Tune 3.50 2.4 5-1
8 7 News Break 3.00 2.9 6-1
2 1 Fiat Lux 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 2 Gold Account 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 5 Mr. Eleventh Hour 12.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Magna Ride 8.00 4.6 9-1
9 8 Smiling Silas 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Smoky Topaz 20.00 7.4 14-1
10 9 O’Connor 20.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Patriot’s War 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Colonel Bowman 2.50 1.3 3-1
5 5 Wild for Wycliff 3.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Tulane Tryst 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Regal Run 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Sir Giannis 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Screenplay 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Happy Romance 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Remember Hymn 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 He’s in Charge 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Trident Hit 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Job Security 4.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Majestic West 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Extraordinary 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Verified 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Victory Boulevard 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Lemon Kick 8.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Glory Road 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Justinthenickotime 12.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Whimsical Muse 5.00 2.4 5-1
5A 5 Yes It’s Ginger 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 She Can’t Sing 6.00 3 6-1
1A 1 Dance Rhythms 5.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 In Good Spirits 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Sterling Miss 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Luvin Bullies 6.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Originator 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Vomba 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Heaven Escape 20.00 7.7 15-1
11 11 Sassy Seneca 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Win Ya Win 4.50 2.4 5-1
10A 9 Bibleman 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Bistraya 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 My Wise Cat 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Charge the Line 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Palvera 12.00 4.5 9-1
11 10 Zelig 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 My Friend Flavin 4.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Hooray Austin 10.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Keys to the Palace 30.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Make Me Smile 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 C’Mon Ve 20.00 SCRATCH
13A 13 Half Again 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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