January 30, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Loving Lucky | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Nick | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Birthday Party | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Directional | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Double Tough Tiger | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Texas Royalty | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Olympic Champion | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Matt’s Honey | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | All Fact | 0.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yes I’m Evil | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Barbess | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | As Fast as You Can | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Glance | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Brookside | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Marrazano | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Havinfunyet | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 3 | Lemon Chill | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aimara | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Orb’s Soul | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Miss Commish | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bet Your Bankroll | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Runaway Dream | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summer Express | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | Cold Hearted Wench | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sharperthanme | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Smittys Patriarch | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gypsy’s Soulmate | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Banquet Chef | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fifty Protection | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Apache Tears | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bunkie’s Song | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Yank Crime | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stonecatcher | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Benbow Cat | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Make’n Tracks | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pharaoh’s Kitten | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Adeeb | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No Ka Oi | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Maga Country | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Range of Motion | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Easy to Miss | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Just Gun It | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tapit’s Temple | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Summer Tune | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | News Break | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fiat Lux | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gold Account | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mr. Eleventh Hour | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Magna Ride | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Smiling Silas | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Smoky Topaz | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | O’Connor | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Patriot’s War | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Colonel Bowman | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wild for Wycliff | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tulane Tryst | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Run | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sir Giannis | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Screenplay | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Happy Romance | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Remember Hymn | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | He’s in Charge | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Trident Hit | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Job Security | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Majestic West | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Extraordinary | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Verified | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Victory Boulevard | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lemon Kick | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Glory Road | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Justinthenickotime | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Whimsical Muse | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Yes It’s Ginger | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | She Can’t Sing | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Dance Rhythms | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | In Good Spirits | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sterling Miss | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Luvin Bullies | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Originator | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vomba | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heaven Escape | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sassy Seneca | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Win Ya Win | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Bibleman | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bistraya | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Wise Cat | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Charge the Line | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Palvera | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Zelig | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Friend Flavin | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hooray Austin | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Keys to the Palace | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Make Me Smile | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | C’Mon Ve | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Half Again | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.