Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 23, 2021

January 23, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Maracuja 1.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Hybrid Eclipse 1.60 1.7 3-1
7 7 Tekila 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Handle the Truth 8.00 3.6 7-1
2A 2 After the Wire 15.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Ricelle 20.00 5.5 10-1
6A 6 Needacarcalllouie 15.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6A 6 Its All Relevant 2.00 2.4 4-1
1A 1 Gio d’Oro 2.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Supreme Aura 3.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 I Love Jaxson 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Runabout 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Direct Order 5.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Dark Storm 6.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Attentive 10.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Jazil S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Musical Heart 2.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Tenderfoot 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Backsideofthemoon 1.40 1.8 3-1
4 4 Mr. Buff 1.80 1.9 4-1
2 2 Fame to Famous 50.00 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bustinmygroove 0.60 2.4 4-1
3 3 Avid Sucinori 10.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Big Tony’s Girl 3.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Scott Alaia 8.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Harlem Dancer 15.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Edge of Anxiety 12.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Winter Warrior 20.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Flirtacious Kiss 30.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 The Great Poohdini 50.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Rift Valley 2.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Kaz’s Beach 4.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Notorious Flirt 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Advanced Strategy 2.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Farragut 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Too Early 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Forever Wicked 20.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Don’t Cry Anna 30.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Gun Hill Girl 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 4 Captivating Cara 3.00 1.8 3-1
7 6 Bley 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Vive La Liberty 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Full of Fire 6.00 3.1 6-1
9 8 Stella Mars 2.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Tremayne 15.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 Wish for Magic 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Royal Suspect 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Kingfish 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Cohiba Ghost 2.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Unbridled John 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Quintarelli 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Implied Volatility 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 6 Beta 15.00 7.3 14-1
6 5 Freedom Force 15.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Honorable Avenue 15.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Malibu Star 2.00 2 4-1
4 3 Aasr 5.00 2 4-1
8 7 Chestertown 1.80 2.5 5-1
1 1 Burning Bright 15.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Obsessed 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 1 Villainous 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 2 American Rule 20.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Lost in Rome 15.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Win With Pride 10.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Irish Roar (IRE) 12.00 4 7-1
5 5 Justin Front 6.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Hurricane Dancer 12.00 4.3 8-1
12 10 It’s Hot Out 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 7 Winning Drive 5.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Tale of Mist 20.00 5.2 10-1
10 8 Corporate Raider 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 San Juan Diego 20.00 5.3 10-1
4A 4 Professor Snape 30.00 8 15-1
8 6 I Saw It All 50.00 8.9 17-1
7A 7 Toohottoevenspeak 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Shamrocked 1.40 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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