Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 21, 2021

January 21, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ekaterinoslav 2.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Breakin Daylight 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Oso Negro 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 Money Biz 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Data Load 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Jail House 12.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Mayberry Saloon 20.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bella Belle 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Over the Blues 5.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Tupelo Hon E 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Longleggedlaverne 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Lady Kaza 4.50 4.2 8-1
4 4 Better Biz 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Navy Regatta 12.00 5 9-1
8 8 Bee Balm 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Our Slick Chick 2.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Katie the Cutie 3.50 2.2 4-1
9 9 Christeana’s Kiss 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Limage 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Sundereya 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Close to Me 8.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Malibu Moira 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Paddy O 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Melody Rose 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Beachcombing 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Chantry Flats 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 East Lex 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Spycraft 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Botswana Taps 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Lookin High 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Doodle Time 10.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Biarritz 8.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lucky Artie 3.50 2.4 4-1
8 7 Ronnie’s Peso 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Stella’s Surprise 4.00 3.6 7-1
10 9 Star Prado 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 Love Bound 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Commercial Flash 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Sienna Breeze 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Sing the Song 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Kehron’s Creed 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Mandoline Star 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Musta Got Lost 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Martinized 8.00 3.6 7-1
13 12 Your Time’s Coming 6.00 4.1 8-1
11 10 Kamara Vision 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Moment of Stardom 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Henning 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 Ballinonabudjet 8.00 4.5 8-1
8 7 Unfathomed 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Kansas King 8.00 5 9-1
3 3 Father Goose 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 K T’s Jilted Groom 12.00 5.4 10-1
14 13 Charlie G 12.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Mr. Universe 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Multidimensional 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Magawildtime 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Coltonator 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 4 Man of Honor 4.50 2.8 5-1
2 1 Verified 6.00 3.9 7-1
1A 8 Wandering West 4.50 4.5 9-1
3 2 Mister K 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Lafitte’s Fleet 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Red Clay Magic 8.00 6.6 12-1
4 3 Kadri 10.00 7 13-1
8 9 Boyfriend Material 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 More Abundance 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Freedom Factor 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 2 Hitters Park 8.00 4 8-1
11 8 Eden Grey’s Kitten 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 Just Blaze 8.00 4.3 8-1
12 9 Channel Won 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 3 Spectrolite 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 1 Bye Bye Birdstone 12.00 6.3 12-1
5 4 Catalogue 15.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Hotfoot 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Dream Halo 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Rock On Kitten 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Baquero’s Bind 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Joemo 6.00 3 6-1
7 6 Luck of the Draw 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 5 City Park 4.50 3.3 6-1
5 4 Drilling Report 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Silver King 8.00 4.5 9-1
10 9 Taking Notes 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Venn 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Tensas Toddy 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Rahfees Man 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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