January 21, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Sneak | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Misty Taste | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Afleeting Glance | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Love That Face | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Crick | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mizzys Image | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Central Capital | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Idaka | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | No Deal | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Liana | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dublinornothin | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blunt Force | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lovely Lady Lexi | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cover Photo | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Evan’s Nice Now | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Heavy Roller | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flowers for Lisa | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mac’s Revolution | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | High Command | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dynamax Prime | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Hawaiian Noises | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Control Group | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fleet Irish | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Runaway Lute | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sicilia Mike | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Steam Engine | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Manifest Destiny | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dark Money | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vicar’s Legend | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kosciuszko | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Playthatfunnymusic | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Oh My Papa | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spikes Shirl | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Control Stake | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diddley | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ninth Hour | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Queens Jules | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Summer Bourbon | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Batterbatterswing | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Releasethethunder | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Durkin’s Call | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Daddy Knows | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Right | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Mountain | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Caretaker | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Charlie McCoy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beach Access | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vintage Hollywood | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I Love Jaxson | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Foolish Ghost | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | More Graytful | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zaevion | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Morning Breez | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bustin Shout | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Speightful Kitten | 30.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Manolito | 50.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Big Brown Shoes | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Reggae Music Man | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | A Longlongtimeago | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Forty Two Ace | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | One Whirlwind Ride | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Vodka Lemonade | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Taco Bean | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Purple Hearted | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forgotten Mission | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rogue Leader | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.