Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 21, 2021

January 21, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sweet Sneak 1.80 1.3 3-1
7 7 Misty Taste 5.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Afleeting Glance 2.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Love That Face 8.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Crick 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Mizzys Image 12.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Central Capital 15.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Idaka 30.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 No Deal 2.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Miss Liana 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Dublinornothin 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Blunt Force 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Lovely Lady Lexi 1.60 3.2 6-1
2 2 Cover Photo 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Evan’s Nice Now 30.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Heavy Roller 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Flowers for Lisa 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Mac’s Revolution 12.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 High Command 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Dynamax Prime 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 6 Hawaiian Noises 20.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Control Group 1.40 SCRATCH
7 7 Fleet Irish 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Runaway Lute 3.00 2.1 4-1
8 7 Sicilia Mike 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Steam Engine 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Manifest Destiny 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Dark Money 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Vicar’s Legend 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Kosciuszko 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Playthatfunnymusic 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Oh My Papa 4.50 2 4-1
6 5 Spikes Shirl 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Control Stake 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Diddley 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Ninth Hour 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 The Queens Jules 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 Summer Bourbon 15.00 7.4 14-1
7 6 Batterbatterswing 15.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 Releasethethunder 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Durkin’s Call 6.00 2 4-1
9 8 Daddy Knows 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Just Right 3.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Big Mountain 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 The Caretaker 4.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Charlie McCoy 8.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Beach Access 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 5 Vintage Hollywood 15.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 I Love Jaxson 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Foolish Ghost 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 More Graytful 2.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Zaevion 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Morning Breez 8.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Bustin Shout 2.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Speightful Kitten 30.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Manolito 50.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Big Brown Shoes 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Reggae Music Man 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 A Longlongtimeago 4.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Forty Two Ace 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 One Whirlwind Ride 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Vodka Lemonade 6.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Taco Bean 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Purple Hearted 10.00 5 9-1
3 3 Forgotten Mission 15.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Rogue Leader 20.00 7.3 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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