Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 9, 2021

January 9, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Charge the Line 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Taken Back 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Fire Blaster 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Luke’s Cajun Star 4.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Pure Valor 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Roger Brown 6.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Matt’s Honey 2.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 N. D. Free 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Diamondcoat 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Texas Rain 3.00 4 8-1
2 2 Yes I’m Evil 4.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Ragatagtag 6.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Desha 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 All Fact 3.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Little Code 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Barbess 6.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 According to Aspen 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Quinn Murphy 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Lady Kaza 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Havinfunyet 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Miss Brookside 20.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wishing Belle 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 With a Whisper 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Bar Tap 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Dancin All Alone 5.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Sharperthanme 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Cherokee Chatter 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Air Walker 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Custom for Carlita 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Impeachableoffense 6.00 2.9 6-1
9 8 Hotfoot 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 4 Eden Grey’s Kitten 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 1 Richard’s Boy 4.50 4 8-1
4 2 Irish Hokie 8.00 4 8-1
7 6 Dowse’s Beach 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Spectrolite 8.00 6.5 12-1
5 3 More Abundance 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 5 Drakkar 15.00 8.2 16-1
1A 11 Sir Truebadour 6.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Western Trouble 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Bootsie’s Galaxy 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Win Ya Win 3.50 3.4 6-1
5 4 Hooray Austin 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Silver Galaxy 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 3 Double Barrel Man 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Zelig 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 My Wise Cat 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Cane Creek Road 3.00 1.6 3-1
10 9 Immortal 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Citadel 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Man On the Moon 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Fieldstone 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Phraseologism 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Awe Shackle 12.00 6.1 11-1
9 8 B W P Special 20.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Run Far 20.00 7.4 14-1
12 11 Pretty Creative 20.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 River’s Raging 30.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Double Tough Tiger 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Birthday Party 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Loving Lucky 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lord Dragon 3.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Laughing Fox 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 M G Warrior 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Locally Owned 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Hop Kat 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Militiaman 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Vangilder 8.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Nelson J. Menard Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Winning Envelope 5.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Eyeinthesky 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Into Mystic 1.80 2.8 5-1
4 4 Elle Z 3.50 3 6-1
8 8 Play On 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 Change of Control 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Snowball 20.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 On Probation 30.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gallant Star 4.50 1.7 3-1
8 7 Everlovinghand 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 5 War Savvy 4.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Fifty Protection 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 4 Volition 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Mind On My Money 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Mr. Universe 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Maximum Fury 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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