January 9, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Charge the Line | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Taken Back | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fire Blaster | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Luke’s Cajun Star | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pure Valor | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Roger Brown | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Matt’s Honey | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | N. D. Free | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Diamondcoat | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Texas Rain | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yes I’m Evil | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ragatagtag | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Desha | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | All Fact | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Little Code | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Barbess | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | According to Aspen | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quinn Murphy | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Kaza | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Havinfunyet | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Brookside | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wishing Belle | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | With a Whisper | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bar Tap | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dancin All Alone | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sharperthanme | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cherokee Chatter | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Air Walker | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Custom for Carlita | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Impeachableoffense | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hotfoot | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Eden Grey’s Kitten | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Richard’s Boy | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Irish Hokie | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dowse’s Beach | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Spectrolite | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | More Abundance | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drakkar | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Sir Truebadour | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Western Trouble | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Bootsie’s Galaxy | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Win Ya Win | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hooray Austin | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silver Galaxy | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Double Barrel Man | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Zelig | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Wise Cat | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Cane Creek Road | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Immortal | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Citadel | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Man On the Moon | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fieldstone | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Phraseologism | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Awe Shackle | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | B W P Special | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Run Far | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pretty Creative | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | River’s Raging | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Double Tough Tiger | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Birthday Party | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Loving Lucky | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lord Dragon | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Laughing Fox | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | M G Warrior | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Locally Owned | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hop Kat | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Militiaman | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vangilder | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Nelson J. Menard Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Winning Envelope | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Eyeinthesky | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Into Mystic | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Elle Z | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Play On | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Change of Control | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Snowball | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | On Probation | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gallant Star | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Everlovinghand | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | War Savvy | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fifty Protection | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Volition | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mind On My Money | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr. Universe | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maximum Fury | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.