Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 7, 2021

January 7, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Another Shot 0.60 1.5 3-1
8 8 Daggerboard 6.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Swinging Sticks 4.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Scotty 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Loulovestheriver 10.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Go Cash Go 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 War of Thrones 15.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Takecareyallchickn 30.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Scilly Cay 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 The Caretaker 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Jemography 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Big Mountain 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Bronx Bomber 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Steam Engine 8.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Social Group 5.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Legend of Ekati 20.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Bold Gem 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Loaded Joe 20.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Lorenzen 30.00 5 9-1
7 6 Seediskid 50.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Corkman 1.20 SCRATCH
8 8 Prince of Caps 1.80 SCRATCH
9 9 Lady’s Boy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Loverboy Lou 2.50 1.8 3-1
8 7 Honorable Service 3.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Earned Success 5.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Dial One 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Justin Front 12.00 3.4 7-1
9 8 It’s Hot Out 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Desert Lights 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Coltandmississippi 30.00 7.9 15-1
7A 7 Kampai 20.00 SCRATCH
10A 9 Super Garner 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kid Cash 1.80 2.9 5-1
3 3 Subsidize 2.50 2.9 6-1
5 5 Kawhi Me a River 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Nerves of Steel 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Jailbreaker 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Z’devil 8.00 5 10-1
8 8 Run Smitty Run 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Epona Rising 12.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Amos 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Chaysenbryn 2.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Make Or Break 4.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Big Bennys Tribute 2.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Wicked Amber 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Cousin Basil 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Inveterate 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 More Mango 20.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Someday Jones 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 3 Lil Commissioner 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 2 Mihos 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Rock On Luke 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Whistling Birds 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Looking At Bikinis 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Shandian 3.50 1.8 3-1
10 10 Brees Bayou 3.00 2 4-1
7 7 Number One Dillon 4.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Macho Boy 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Healy’s Hope 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 David’s Gem 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Blues City 12.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Larceny 20.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Mr. Fidget 20.00 8 15-1
1 1 No More Miracles 20.00 8.3 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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