January 7, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Another Shot | 0.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Daggerboard | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swinging Sticks | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Scotty | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Loulovestheriver | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go Cash Go | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War of Thrones | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Takecareyallchickn | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Scilly Cay | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Caretaker | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jemography | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Mountain | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bronx Bomber | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Steam Engine | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Social Group | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Legend of Ekati | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bold Gem | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Loaded Joe | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lorenzen | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seediskid | 50.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Corkman | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Prince of Caps | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lady’s Boy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Loverboy Lou | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Honorable Service | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Earned Success | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dial One | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Justin Front | 12.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | It’s Hot Out | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Desert Lights | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coltandmississippi | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Kampai | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10A | 9 | Super Garner | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kid Cash | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Subsidize | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kawhi Me a River | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nerves of Steel | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jailbreaker | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Z’devil | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Run Smitty Run | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Epona Rising | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Amos | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chaysenbryn | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Make Or Break | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Big Bennys Tribute | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Amber | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cousin Basil | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Inveterate | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | More Mango | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Someday Jones | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lil Commissioner | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mihos | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rock On Luke | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whistling Birds | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Looking At Bikinis | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shandian | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Brees Bayou | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Number One Dillon | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Macho Boy | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Healy’s Hope | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | David’s Gem | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blues City | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Larceny | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Fidget | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No More Miracles | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.