Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, January 1, 2021

January 1, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Toodaloo to You 6.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Love Bound 4.50 4.5 9-1
5 4 C’Estbon C’Estbon 3.50 5.1 10-1
8 6 Lexi Em 8.00 5.6 11-1
7 5 Monarchos Prayer 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Flat Out Big Money 8.00 6 11-1
3 3 Sucre 2.50 SCRATCH
6 5 Custom for Carlita 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Lookit 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Baquero’s Bind 8.00 3.8 7-1
11 9 Grand Priority 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Totally Addicted 3.50 4.2 8-1
8 7 Good Old Charlie 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 Roger’s World 15.00 6.1 12-1
4 3 Babe Reed 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 8 Ide B Stranded 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 5 Starvictory 20.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Bitsy’s Other Half 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Irish Bayou 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Bucky 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 4 Ekaterinoslav 2.00 2.4 5-1
1A 5 Jackfruit 2.00 2.4 5-1
2 1 Goforthewinecourse 3.50 4.4 8-1
7 8 Pastor Van 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 6 Freightrainfreeman 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 2 Silent Cry 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Mayberry Saloon 10.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 5 Breeze Rider 2.50 4.4 8-1
4 3 Tupelo Hon E 8.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Shake D Moon 10.00 4.8 9-1
3 2 Better Biz 10.00 5.2 10-1
11 6 Longleggedlaverne 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 1 Over the Blues 10.00 5.9 11-1
12 7 Malartach 12.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Belmar Beauty 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Love of My Heart 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Navy Regatta 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bee Balm 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bella Belle 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dixie Street 1.40 2.3 4-1
7 7 Available Star 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Herewecometogetyou 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Knockalittlelouder 3.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Loveu and Proudofu 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Love That Warrior 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Jennovodka 12.00 5 9-1
8 8 Pillage Da Village 12.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Lynchburg 4.50 1.8 3-1
12 6 Pat Daddy 4.50 2.4 5-1
7 3 Hitters Park 4.00 2.7 5-1
10 5 Bye Bye Birdstone 8.00 4.9 9-1
9 4 O’L Red 8.00 5 9-1
4 2 Western Trouble 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Richard’s Boy 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Catalogue 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Eden Grey’s Kitten 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 More Abundance 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Dowse’s Beach 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Hotfoot 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Mucho Macho Momma 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 4 Momaria 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 2 Save 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 1 Bold Confection 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 5 Breonna 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Firingtothefront 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Only Kidding 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 4 Figure It Out 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 3 Chikara 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 1 Sensible Myth 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 2 Spartanka 30.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Threewickedwishes 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Jeanie B (GB) 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Russian Mafia 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Kettle Valley 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Aife 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Originator 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Wishing Belle 3.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Linda Got Lucky 4.00 2.9 5-1
6 4 Your My Sunshine 5.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Diamond and Silks 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 I Got Wings 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 1 Two More Barbo 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 2 Wheres Mom 8.00 5.4 10-1
1A 8 Cast Your Crown 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 5 Brightnmorningstar 20.00 7.2 14-1
2 1 Dad’s Star Cat 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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