Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 18, 2020

December 18, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Doctor K 2.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Sinashack 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Stimulus Maker 4.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Excellorator 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Risky Woods 10.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Kentucky Knight 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Rocco Strong 20.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Production Credit 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Centavo 30.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Magnetique 1.40 1.4 3-1
3 3 Tuff Bird 4.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Girardi 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Secret Zar 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Princess Pinky 10.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 More Mango 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Big Al’s Gal 10.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Gone Glimmering 1.20 2 4-1
1 1 Sadie Lady 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Call On Mischief 3.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Our Circle of Love 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Maryanorginger 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Gypsy Janie 10.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Cindervella 2.50 1.6 3-1
6 5 Lovely Lady Lexi 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Whyisshesoolucky 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 4 Beyond Discreet 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Sister Alexa 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Dublinornothin 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Persian Queen 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Blugrascat’s Smile 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Mills 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Playwright 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Bozzini 6.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Other Things Equal 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Scarf It Down 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Frankie Barone 12.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Real Dan 15.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Autostrade 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Hero’s Hope 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Successful Saint 30.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Beautiful Karen 1.40 2 4-1
6 6 Equant 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 I’m Fine 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Munnings Muse 2.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Moon Sweeper 6.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Bella Domenica 12.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Masterof the Tunes 15.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Calidad 20.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Steppin’ Hawk 50.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Shandian 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Macho Boy 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Coolboy 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Cohiba Ghost 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Ink Splotz 15.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Principal Dancer 4.50 4.9 9-1
12 11 Pinky Dude 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 I Saw It All 20.00 6 11-1
14 13 Charge Ahead 20.00 6.2 12-1
13 12 Mr. Fidget 30.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Pricing Exercise 30.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Our American Star 30.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Ridolfo 50.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Royal Suspect 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Maiden Beauty 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Am Impazible 4.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Customerexperience 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 6 South of the Shore 2.50 2.6 5-1
6A 5 Quiet Dignity 8.00 3.4 6-1
11A 8 Enjoyitwhilewecan 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Break Curfew 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 I Dare U 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Sky Kitten 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Wicked Amber 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Pat’s No Fool 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nicky the Vest 8.00 2.6 5-1
12 12 Full Moon Fever 10.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Blurt 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Ruse 4.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Brew Pub 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Tanners Neck Lane 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Skippingandajumpin 10.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Tales of Saratoga 15.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Pollard’s Day 15.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Celtic Heart 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Judge Bern 30.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Hold the Irish 50.00 9.6 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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