Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 13, 2020

December 13, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Wings of Fire 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Empress Luciana 8.00 4 7-1
6 5 Yes Your Honor 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 7 Lucky Lindsey 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Roma Carpe 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Cemetery V I P 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Crick 1.20 SCRATCH
1 1 Excited Feeling 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Beaver Creek 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Jake Rocks 4.50 2 4-1
7 7 Dubai Bobby 4.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Mister Bobby 4.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Loverboy Lou 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Rejected Again 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 The Great Dansky 15.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Super Wicked Charm 30.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Bay Ridge S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lucky Move 1.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Firenze Freedom 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Sky Kitten 50.00 SCRATCH
5 3 Singular Sensation 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 4 Mrs. Orb 1.20 2.8 5-1
4 4 Kilkea 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Unbridled Honor 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Constitutional Law 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Risk Taking 6.00 1.9 4-1
5 4 The Reds 6.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Rock Sugar 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Hardison 3.50 3.3 6-1
8 7 Dazzle Time 15.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Lochinvar (GER) 30.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Wicked Title 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 She’s a Black Belt 5.00 2.5 5-1
10 9 Grudge 8.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Flashpackinbarbie 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Gray Haze 6.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Lookbothways 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Wedontbelieveher 10.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Appletini 20.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Dashi 4.50 SCRATCH
6 5 Evan’s Nice Now 50.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cartwheel 4.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Gentle Annie 12.00 2.4 4-1
5 4 Jc’s Shooting Star 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 Wailin Josie 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 6 Awesome Alana 2.50 2.8 5-1
9 7 Dragoness 15.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Dancingwthdaffodls 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Micromillion 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Peaches and Spice 50.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Grit and Glory 4.00 2.6 5-1
9 8 Flowers for Lisa 2.50 2.8 5-1
6 5 Runabout 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Orpheus (ARG) 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Outrageous Bet 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 Beach Access 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Chief Know It All 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Hot Diggitty 15.00 4.9 9-1
11 10 Hawaiian Noises 15.00 5.1 10-1
10 9 High Command 12.00 6 11-1
5 4 Brush Country 30.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Daphne Moon 2.00 1.9 4-1
4 3 Foxtail 1.80 2 4-1
1 1 Ujjayi 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Persisto 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 Indy Union 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 5 Jennemily 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Gracetown 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Mia Bea Star 4.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 She’s a Lumberjane 20.00 SCRATCH
11 8 Nicky Scissors 3.00 3.7 7-1
14 11 La Negrita 5.00 4.7 9-1
12 9 Dare to Try 6.00 4.7 9-1
16 13 Left Leaning Lucy 3.50 4.8 9-1
9 9 Gagliano 30.00 SCRATCH
13 10 Lasagna 20.00 6.3 12-1
6 5 Shannon’s Girl 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 1 Cruising Strong 12.00 6.6 13-1
5 4 Tripp Road 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 3 Touch of Nirvana 30.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Well Brush Mytooth 8.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Gringotts 30.00 8.7 16-1
3 2 Dazzling Speed 50.00 11.1 21-1
15 12 Sarahrini 50.00 11.6 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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