December 10, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Smile Bryan | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cavaradossi | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Qian B C | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tapizearance | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Money in the Bank | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Complexifier | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Excellent Timing | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lindros | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Scherzando | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Forty Two Ace | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Moon Fever | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Brother Neil | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Son of an Ex | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A Longlongtimeago | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Legit | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Someday Jones | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Pro | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Roaming Union | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Control Group | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Twisted Tom | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ekhtibaar | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9A | 6 | Malibu Star | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Citizen West | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sul Candy | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ethos | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Risk Profile | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Corkman | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beckenbauer | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ajhar | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Southerner | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Amortization (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Coal Shaft | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Baby Blythe | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fedalia | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Miss Bonnie T | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Palm Court | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Brina | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Broken Table (IRE) | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twiddle | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Girl Blue | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Obligatory | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Iaintfraidanoghost | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Plum Awesome | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Miss Delicious | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ricelle | 50.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wudda U Think Now | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cold Hard Cash | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Farragut | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Kaz’s Beach | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jerry the Nipper | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Unrelenting Force | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancers for Token | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Advanced Strategy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jack Bo | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Three Jokers | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Troubleshooter | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Too Early | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 11 | Run for Boston | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Last Ace | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Flatexcel | 50.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Forever Wicked | 50.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Anzio Beach | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dangerous Edge | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | No Lime | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Salt | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bronxville | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Diannesimpazible | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Fidget | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Joy City | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Amanjena | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fotis | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Larceny | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Bahamian Park | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Honorable Avenue | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | King of American | 50.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Knight Frost | 50.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Lightning Rob | 50.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Astoria Kitten | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Canarsie Angel | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fresco | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | She So Naughty | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ancient Brown | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Summer At the Spa | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Graetz | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Doll | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Itsakeyper | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Monificent | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Magical Romance | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Honey Money | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ruvies in Time | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Breithorn | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Orphan Hallie | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady’s Boy | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | The Beast and I | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Loaded Joe | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Warfront Fighter | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mucho Sunshine | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | King Slaughter | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Cat West | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Confectioner | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mariner Qui | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Alite | 50.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.