Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, December 5, 2020

December 5, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 S Man 3.50 2.8 5-1
9 6 Yes This Time 6.00 3.1 6-1
10 7 Thirtyminutemass 8.00 4 8-1
11 8 Tour the World 4.50 4 8-1
7 4 Immortal 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Roll Tyler 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 1 Ames Mister 12.00 5.3 10-1
8 5 Half Cocked 20.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Global Empire 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Tlaloc 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Louisville Legend 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ten Brownies 5.00 3 6-1
1 1 Set Hut 3.50 3.5 7-1
7 6 Spring Value 4.00 4 8-1
5 5 Jake the Band Man 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Booth Road Shine 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Eights Wild 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Tensas Talk 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cha Vez 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 Hero of the Hour 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Copper Fiddle 6.00 4.4 8-1
14 14 Morhawk 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Camps Bay 10.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 More Ice 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 T. J. B. Oorah 12.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Mishko 8.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Mom Said Yes 12.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Rock On Kitten 15.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Causforcelebration 20.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Fredonian 20.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Caramel Angel 20.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Mayor Cobb 20.00 10.5 20-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Wicked Citi 2.50 2.4 4-1
7 7 Holy Spirit 3.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Jennovodka 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Jackfruit 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Hardly Blue 4.00 3.4 7-1
6 6 Son of Patriot 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Brother Doc 20.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 New Hampshire 8.00 2 4-1
10 10 Hot Stove League 5.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Lode of Blarney 5.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Ultimate Irony 4.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Gold Vermilion 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Bryce Canyon 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Charity for All 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Olympic Champion 12.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Run Far 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Pretty Creative 20.00 6 11-1
11 11 Xietelehuas 20.00 7 13-1
5 5 Hiccup 30.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Benson 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 4 Blonde On Tap 2.50 1.5 3-1
7 6 Making Progress 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Tough Bama Belle 10.00 4.5 9-1
6 5 Im Coming Over 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Wave of Goodness 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Double Dare You 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Magnetism 4.00 1.7 3-1
2 1 Killer Dress 4.00 2.2 4-1
1A 7 Stage Fright 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 Burning Ambition 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 Arm Candy 2.50 3.9 7-1
5 4 Blissful Change 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 6 Joqular 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Stephanies Jewel 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Guided Missile 6.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Man of Honor 4.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Pat Daddy 4.50 3.2 6-1
9 9 Bye Bye Birdstone 6.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Energizer 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Verb 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Grove Daddy 15.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Kadri 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Jazz It Up 20.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 High Cruise 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Destiny Way 30.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pan Zareta S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Winning Envelope 5.00 2.9 6-1
4 3 Play On 4.00 4.2 8-1
11 9 Into Mystic 2.50 4.2 8-1
5 4 Change of Control 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 6 Dance Rhythms 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Elle Z 12.00 5.4 10-1
10 8 A Bit of Both 8.00 6.3 12-1
14 12 Mucho Amor 20.00 7.1 13-1
9 7 Best Kept Secret 20.00 7.7 15-1
13 11 Sterling Miss 20.00 8.4 16-1
6 5 On Probation 30.00 8.5 16-1
12 10 Xanthique 20.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Our Lost Love 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Dixieincandyland 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Kamara Vision 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Unanimously 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Wish Upon a Star 5.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 A Star Is Born Now 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Kansas King 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Visions of Gold 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Multidimensional 12.00 4.2 8-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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