Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 29, 2020

November 29, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Maga Country 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Lautrec 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Tiz Light the Way 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Florida Flash 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Consider 20.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Count Your Pennies 3.50 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Assumption 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Cowboy Hippie 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Bode’s Light 3.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Optimistic Valor 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Cold as Hell 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Western Pharoah 3.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Catch the Sparrow 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Eskenforit 2.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Mo Zone 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Lastchanceatglory 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Carte Blanche 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Trashtalkinyankee 3.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Stock Deal 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Strike Appeal 12.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Witch Doctor 5.00 1.5 3-1
8 6 Pradar 4.50 1.6 3-1
3 2 Out Cold 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Half Trick 3.50 5.3 10-1
4 3 County Court 4.00 5.7 11-1
6 5 Dealin’ Stelen 8.00 5.8 11-1
9 7 Twobirdsonestone 15.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Grats Road 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Hyndford 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Roderick 1.80 1.2 2-1
7 6 Spicy Marg 6.00 1.6 3-1
4 3 Superman Shaq 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 County Final 2.00 2 4-1
6 5 Outlier 12.00 5.6 11-1
5 4 Lookin for Loki 10.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Sidetown 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Absam 5.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Fastly 1.60 1.6 3-1
6 6 American Citizen 12.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Atoka 20.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Imperial Conflict 4.50 5.4 10-1
4 4 Scale 4.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Towing 20.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 League of Legends 20.00 7 13-1
9 9 Another Hero 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Can Imagine 12.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Bluebird Day 10.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Smart Call 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Jurisdiction 5.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 The Big Bluff 6.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Major Attraction 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Veiled Vixen 12.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Church of Many 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Critic 5.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Good Clean Fun 15.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 My Name Is Phred 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Convention 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Patriarch Artie 4.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Bugle of War 12.00 2 4-1
1 1 Pregame 12.00 2.3 4-1
11 10 Beep Beep 15.00 4.3 8-1
9 8 Now a Jaguar 4.50 4.4 8-1
10 9 Roman Pharoah 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Spheroid 20.00 5.2 10-1
12 11 Wellman 5.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Racarino 4.50 7 13-1
4 4 Audacious Antoine 30.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Babylon 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Miss Imperfection 8.00 1.8 3-1
7 5 Alta’s Award 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 4 High Regard 3.00 4.3 8-1
3 1 Oh So Terrible 12.00 5 9-1
5 3 Nomizar 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Goodbye Earl 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mizzen Beau 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5A 5 Twenty Twice 1.60 1.9 4-1
6 6 Kadesh 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Mulberry Street 4.50 2.9 5-1
10 10 Falkirk 15.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Distorted Moon 20.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Claytnthelionheart 10.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Mister Candy Ride 15.00 5.4 10-1
11A 11 Excession 1.60 5.7 11-1
7 7 Beaver Hat 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Make Noise 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Extraordinary 5.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Lake Nakuru 20.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Amalfi Princess 2.50 1.7 3-1
11 9 Fold Em 6.00 1.7 3-1
5 4 Lady Frosted 12.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Joy of Painting 12.00 2.8 5-1
12 10 Altered Shot 12.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Euphoric 10.00 2.9 6-1
6 5 Ms V Time 10.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Hrasky 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Amusing Antics 4.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Closet Shopper 15.00 8 15-1
13A 11 Grace’s Secret 15.00 8.2 16-1
3A 3 Hold the Fort 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bell Day 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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