November 28, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Goldie’s Delight | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Caught Looking | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Santa Rita | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Saranya | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sovereign Power | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Princess d’Oro | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Len Lo Lady | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Silk and Sugar | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Point Wild | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tabor Hall | 4.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chandelier Island | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cuzzywuzzy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Will’s Secret | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hold the Fort | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Awesome Treat | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Willful Woman | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Peace Broker | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dottie | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Jail House Code | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Illiogami | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Family Time | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sylvia Q | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ginkgo | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Best Cause | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Take Charge Lorin | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | She’s So Cali | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Grace’s Secret | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Solemn Oath | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Fair Game | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Scarred | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin At Justice | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cousin Larry | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Meister | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All Bodes Well | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Camp Hope | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hidden Stash | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Language Barrier | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cheffy | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Burrow | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Holy Redeemer | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Boldish | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Majestic Summer | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dolder Grand | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Samurai Saint | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Galilee | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Warrior in Chief | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Master of War | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Shartle | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bugle of War | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Loumo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sister Annie | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Southern Grayce | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Catalan | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sparkle of Hope | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Bell Day | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ryan’s Rocket | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mucho Macho Momma | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Silver Banshee | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Salino | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A Merry Prankster | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Wicked Street | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Fold Em | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Altered Shot | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Closet Shopper | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Core Values | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Grand Design | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Load Up Moe | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Power Red | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hope and Dignity | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Scarlet Fusion | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wick | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nakoda | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Private Network | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Saqeel | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Royal Tryst | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Leblon | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mountain King | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Partner’s Hope | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Train to Artemus | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Good With Numbers | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Corey | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Inject | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Overdressed | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Assertive Style | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Charlie’s Penny | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lichita | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Docs Seven | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Army Wife | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tiz Splendid News | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Spun d’Etat | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Torsie’s Charm | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Puye Timing | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Minute Waltz | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Poca Mucha | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Oliviaofthedesert | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stellar Grace | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Forever | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Momentous Miss | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | What Goes On Tour | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Golden Rod S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Travel Column | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Coach | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Lilly | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Clairiere | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Princess Theorem | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Farsighted | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Alexandria | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lady Traveler | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Simply Ravishing | 1.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | No Mo’ Spending | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Mandaloun | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ultimate | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twilight Blue | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Founder | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chicken Truck | 30.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Twirling Mamba | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Crazy Shot | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pico d’Oro | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King’s Ovation | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Smokin’ Jay | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Johny’s Fireball | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Inspector Frost | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Keepmeinmind | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | King Fury | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Swill | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Sittin On Go | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oncoming Train | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Arabian Prince | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Smiley Sobotka | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ultimate Badger | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Outasite | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vancouver Moon | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Runway Magic | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fed Money | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sabuda | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Group Hug | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nitro Time | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sully’s Bro | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Repo Rocks | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prince Maior | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Laughing Boy | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Persian Empire | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Racarino | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Convention | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Patriarch Artie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Wellman | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.