November 27, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lemon and Diem | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shaka | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Niles Channel | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Creasy | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mau Mau | 2.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Autopilot | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shananies Paynter | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Night Candy | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Payster | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Surmont | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mechanicville | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bold Delivery | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Goodtime Artie | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Unspoken Memories | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | The Greatest Eagle | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Plonder | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | T J Munnings | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Strikeitortapit | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hickerson | 4.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gallipolis | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Saving Mama | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Kilsheelan | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Silver State | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shashashakemeup | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dennis’ Moment | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Straight Shot | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kaziranga | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | He’smyhoneybadger | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Barakat | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dr. Roger | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | King of the Nite | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Copa | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Manitowish | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Filippo | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lock Up | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jilted Bride | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honorable Memory | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tipsy Gal | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She Can’t Sing | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Never Forget | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jen Take Charge | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Andrea’s Angel | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mishpocha | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Universally | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Supertaleofhoudini | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shes Got It | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Blossom Road | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Honest Intentions | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | My Girl Lexi | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ship It | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bold Figure | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Stripping | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tonal Vision | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Marlee | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Funnybet | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dutch Treat | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Channel Princess | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hashtag Winner | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hat Tip | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Villanelle | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quiet Dignity | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | O Seraphina | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Longpants Required | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tempers Rising | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Majestic Blend | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Matt’s Honey | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mylastfirstkiss | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Storm At Sea | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Looking At Bikinis | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Empty Tomb | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Home Base | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dabo | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thirstforlife | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Mesa | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Signalman | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Casino Star | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hog Creek Hustle | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Owendale | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | By My Standards | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bodexpress | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aurelius Maximus | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Multiplier | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Silver Prospector | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Plus Que Parfait | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Coastal Defense | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr Freeze | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Code of Honor | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Title Ready | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bourbon Calling | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Phantom Currency | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crafty Daddy | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | In Love (BRZ) | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Speighty Shirl | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Favorite Sin | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kiss Theory | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Mane Girl | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bellucci | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shell Shock | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pictorial | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Atlanta | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Silverbella | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.