Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 27, 2020

November 27, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lemon and Diem 3.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Shaka 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Niles Channel 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Creasy 20.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Mau Mau 2.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Autopilot 4.50 5.3 10-1
4 4 Shananies Paynter 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Night Candy 15.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Payster 4.50 3.3 6-1
9 8 Surmont 4.00 4 8-1
2 1 Mechanicville 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 2 Bold Delivery 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 7 Goodtime Artie 3.50 4.7 9-1
6 5 Unspoken Memories 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 The Greatest Eagle 20.00 6.2 12-1
5 4 Plonder 20.00 7 13-1
7 6 T J Munnings 20.00 7.1 13-1
13 12 Strikeitortapit 6.00 8 15-1
10 9 Hickerson 4.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Gallipolis 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Saving Mama 4.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Kilsheelan 20.00 10.5 20-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Silver State 1.20 1.5 3-1
1 1 Shashashakemeup 12.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Dennis’ Moment 1.40 2 4-1
3 3 Straight Shot 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Kaziranga 15.00 4 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 He’smyhoneybadger 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Barakat 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Dr. Roger 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 King of the Nite 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Copa 3.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Manitowish 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Filippo 20.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Lock Up 8.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Jilted Bride 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Honorable Memory 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Tipsy Gal 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 She Can’t Sing 2.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Never Forget 2.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Jen Take Charge 10.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Andrea’s Angel 15.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Mishpocha 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 6 Universally 5.00 3.4 6-1
9 7 Supertaleofhoudini 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Shes Got It 8.00 4 8-1
2 1 Blossom Road 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Honest Intentions 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 5 My Girl Lexi 15.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Ship It 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Bold Figure 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Stripping 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Graysonsmacho Gal 2.50 1.9 4-1
9 9 Tonal Vision 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Malibu Marlee 12.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Funnybet 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Dutch Treat 12.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Channel Princess 15.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Hashtag Winner 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Hat Tip 15.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Villanelle 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Quiet Dignity 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 O Seraphina 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Longpants Required 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Tempers Rising 2.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Majestic Blend 12.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Matt’s Honey 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Mylastfirstkiss 10.00 6 11-1
4 4 Storm At Sea 10.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Looking At Bikinis 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Empty Tomb 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Home Base 12.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Dabo 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Thirstforlife 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Royal Mesa 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Signalman 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Casino Star 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Hog Creek Hustle 3.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Owendale 5.00 1.5 3-1
12 12 By My Standards 4.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Bodexpress 8.00 2 4-1
5 5 Aurelius Maximus 8.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Multiplier 15.00 2.3 4-1
14 14 Silver Prospector 15.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Plus Que Parfait 30.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Coastal Defense 20.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Mr Freeze 6.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Code of Honor 3.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Title Ready 15.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Bourbon Calling 30.00 8.3 16-1
13 13 Phantom Currency 50.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Crafty Daddy 20.00 9.3 18-1
15 15 In Love (BRZ) 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Speighty Shirl 3.00 1.5 3-1
9 8 Favorite Sin 5.00 1.8 3-1
8 7 Kiss Theory 12.00 2 4-1
1 1 My Mane Girl 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Bellucci 20.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Shell Shock 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Pictorial 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Atlanta 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Silverbella 1.80 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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