November 25, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Wises Landing | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | House Drunk | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crowns and Tiaras | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Playful Justice | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The New Miami | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grace D’ Art | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Hoof Prince | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Elgar | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Well Connected | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Backshot | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Harper | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Donnels Creek | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Ghostly Who | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Park Ridge Benny | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Qualifly | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paddy O’Dini | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Old Timer’s Day | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gettin Even | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Snaggletooth | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Blue and True | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Giddymeister | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Strong Odor | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Red Bottom Rebel | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Microcap | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tizso Awesome | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tetrahydro | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Further Lane | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Samurai | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hopecandiesgood | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Soft N Lovely | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Pepper Pike | 8.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Forloveofcountry | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Adhhar | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Victory Boulevard | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Morning Social | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Idea Man | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rayo de Luz | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Urbanite | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Irish Spirit | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Whisky Man | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Major Kong | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rivers of Lite | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiz McNamara | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lea Ridge | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tom’s Last General | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wind Twist | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Alternate Nights | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Air Temple | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | I Prowl Alone | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Subliminalcriminal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Black Kat Taps | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beauty Day | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flashy Biz | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Willow | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Super Cat Lady | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sugar Love | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Erv’s Wench | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Mo Mosa | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mailman Money | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dean Martini | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Telephone Talker | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | By Your Side | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Crypto Cash | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wild Wes | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fighting Seabee | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Violent City | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dennis’ Moment | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Double Tough Tiger | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flat Reward | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bird Ruler | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Passage | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parrot Head | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mutabaadal | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Einstein | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pollard’s Day | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Culver | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Peterkin | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mountain Bear | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mountain King | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ghost Creek | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | El Casadora | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hickory High | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.