Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 25, 2020

November 25, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Wises Landing 2.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 House Drunk 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Crowns and Tiaras 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Playful Justice 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 The New Miami 4.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Grace D’ Art 4.50 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Hoof Prince 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 1 Elgar 8.00 1.5 3-1
5 4 Well Connected 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 3 Backshot 1.80 2.5 5-1
6 5 Harper 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Donnels Creek 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Ghostly Who 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Park Ridge Benny 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Qualifly 15.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Paddy O’Dini 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Old Timer’s Day 15.00 4 8-1
6 6 Gettin Even 15.00 4.2 8-1
9 8 Snaggletooth 3.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Red Blue and True 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Giddymeister 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Strong Odor 5.00 1.2 2-1
7 6 Red Bottom Rebel 5.00 1.3 2-1
5 4 Microcap 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Tizso Awesome 2.50 2.3 4-1
3 2 Tetrahydro 15.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Further Lane 4.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Sweet Samurai 30.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Hopecandiesgood 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Soft N Lovely 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Pepper Pike 8.00 1.3 3-1
8 7 Forloveofcountry 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 1 Adhhar 6.00 1.5 3-1
5 4 Victory Boulevard 2.00 1.5 3-1
7 6 Morning Social 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 3 Idea Man 30.00 6 11-1
3 2 Rayo de Luz 30.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Urbanite 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Irish Spirit 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Whisky Man 3.50 3.2 6-1
10 8 Major Kong 6.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Rivers of Lite 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Tiz McNamara 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Lea Ridge 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Tom’s Last General 10.00 7.6 14-1
8 7 Wind Twist 15.00 8.2 15-1
5 4 Alternate Nights 20.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Air Temple 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 I Prowl Alone 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Subliminalcriminal 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Black Kat Taps 4.00 2 4-1
7 7 Beauty Day 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Flashy Biz 3.00 3.4 7-1
6 6 Irish Willow 5.00 4 8-1
2 2 Super Cat Lady 5.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Sugar Love 4.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Erv’s Wench 5.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Mo Mosa 6.00 1.9 4-1
2 1 Mailman Money 5.00 2 4-1
10 9 Dean Martini 8.00 2 4-1
9 8 Telephone Talker 10.00 2.3 4-1
8 7 By Your Side 15.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Crypto Cash 15.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Wild Wes 4.00 5.2 10-1
7 6 Fighting Seabee 8.00 6.8 13-1
4 3 Violent City 12.00 7 13-1
1 1 Dennis’ Moment 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Double Tough Tiger 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Flat Reward 20.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Bird Ruler 2.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Southern Passage 4.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Parrot Head 15.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Mutabaadal 15.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Mr. Einstein 12.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Pollard’s Day 20.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Culver 15.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Mr. Peterkin 8.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Mountain Bear 12.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 Mountain King 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Ghost Creek 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 El Casadora 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Hickory High 20.00 10.6 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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