November 21, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Misty Blue | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Richies Great Girl | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ms. Malevolence | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rumpleminx | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pick Up the Fone | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Henrys Deal | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Conoloway | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Treaty of Paris | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speightful Charge | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nostalgia | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Creative Legacy | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Itsallinthenotes | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | English | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | She’s a Deal | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Frond | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chocolate Kisses | 1.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Julia’s Ready | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Final Cut | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | His Glory | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | High Regard | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Temper Tantrum | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Yes Sir Robert | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | I’m Money | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hoistthemainsail | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Press Snooze | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Richiesgotgame | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | C F V Red Nova | 8.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Onenightstandards | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Baytown Bear | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cane Creek Road | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Polsar | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cody’s Legacy | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | A C Expressway | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gainer | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Devilinthebottle | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Samurai Prince | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smoothie | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wild Demir | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Aasr | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mystic Night | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moliere | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pledgeofallegiance | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Poterya | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pintxos | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ghostlore | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Speightstown Again | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Parking Ticket | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Radiantrithym | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Just Fly | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunset Paula Jo | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kiffle | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Take Charge Erica | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heaven Escape | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Its Cold in Dehere | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Romani | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Wild Combo | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Marion Francis | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Total Malice | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Foolery | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lofthouse | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Three Tipsy Chix | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bel Fiore | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Polka Polenta | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Trouble Making | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elle Est Forte | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flippant | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Euphoric | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cupp of Class | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bow Bow Girl | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Thundering Creed | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Chilukki S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Unique Factor | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Finite | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Risky Mandate | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | New Roo | 20.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sanenus (CHI) | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gold Standard | 15.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whoa Nellie | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grand Cru Classe | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crazy Sexy Munny | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | New Eagle | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Martial Eagle | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gambler’s Fallacy | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Soul Beam | 30.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Smirk | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Subdued | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bahama Channel | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Uncle Gregory | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Mutadda | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Blanket of Roses | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Run This Town | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.