Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 18, 2020

November 18, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 I Will Stand 10.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Landofthepharaohs 10.00 2.6 5-1
6 5 Frost Or Frippery 0.80 3 6-1
4 4 Original Intent 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Overzealous 2.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Quicksilver 15.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Go for Sherrie 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Traci’s Greeley 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Unfading Beauty 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Northern Connect 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Stellar Stiletto 3.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 Jills Passion 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Sweet Brynlie 20.00 4 8-1
8 8 Sworn Silence 3.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 First Lady Maggie 4.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Inveterate 8.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Daddymademedoit 3.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Funnybet 2.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 My Bets 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Glamour Girl 2.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Flower House 5.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 5 Patriot’s War 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 2 Hawk of War 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 3 Reigning Spirit 2.50 3.9 7-1
11 6 Combating 50.00 7.6 14-1
7 4 Do Your Best 50.00 8.2 16-1
1 1 Beachwalker 8.00 9 17-1
2 2 Ahnaf 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Punch Hard 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Royale 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Alexander Hamilton 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Stonecastle 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Yellowstone Girl 5.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 It’sfiftyshadetime 6.00 1.9 4-1
4 3 Chandelle 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Dash to the Top 2.50 3 6-1
7 5 Sunshine City 4.00 3.4 6-1
8 6 Moonshine Dancing 15.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Focus First 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Binge Watch 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Freedom Bound 10.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Happygobucky 4.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Credit Enhancement 1.40 3.6 7-1
8 7 Lake Sense 15.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Celestial Spin 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 4 My Girl Lexi 20.00 6 11-1
10 9 Sugar Diva 10.00 6 11-1
2 2 Nancy Work 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 6 Spy a Star 10.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Ravintsara 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Luna Tigress 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sam and Sy 2.50 2.6 5-1
9 7 Generator 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Hygh I. Q. 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Two Worlds 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Copley 20.00 4.3 8-1
10 8 Conformist 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Algebraic 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Drunken Love 30.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Press Snooze 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Critical Threat 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 2 Kim K 3.00 3.3 6-1
11 3 Figure It Out 2.00 4.2 8-1
12 4 Singita Dreams 2.50 4.4 8-1
2 1 Extra Effort 8.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Diamonds Are A 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Bye Bye Bully’s 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Complete 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bacchanalia 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Wildlife 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Temple City Terror 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Sea Dream (BRZ) 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Naughty Joker 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Air Force Jet (GB) 6.00 2.6 5-1
9 8 Albert’s Barn 20.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Makabim 2.50 3.7 7-1
7 6 Continuum 3.00 4.6 9-1
10 9 Stay Happy 5.00 5 9-1
11 10 Town Drunk 10.00 5 10-1
5 4 Atmos 15.00 5.5 10-1
4 3 Firehorn 15.00 7.3 14-1
8 7 Twinkling Knight 50.00 7.7 14-1
6 5 War Veteran 8.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Jimmy Joe 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

Upcoming Bankroll Contests
Wednesday Delta Downs
Begins Wed, Dec 2 1:55 PM ET
Wednesday Remington Park
Begins Wed, Dec 2 8:07 PM ET
Thursday Aqueduct
Begins Thu, Dec 3 12:20 PM ET
Thursday Gulfstream Park
Begins Thu, Dec 3 12:35 PM ET
Thursday Delta Downs
Begins Thu, Dec 3 1:55 PM ET
Thursday Fair Grounds
Begins Thu, Dec 3 2:00 PM ET
Thursday Remington Park
Begins Thu, Dec 3 8:07 PM ET
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