November 13, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | A Thousand Reasons | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nomizar | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady of Luxury | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Black Kettle | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Haynesfest | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | And Seek | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Comedian | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fast Cash | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Data Load | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Classified Info | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Subliminalcriminal | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Don’t Recall | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Bad Days | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | My Name Is Phred | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Make’n Tracks | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Big Biz | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hex | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sonic Burn | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trumpin On | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tonal Vision | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Elusive Molly | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Joy of Treasure | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spun Eazy | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coldwater | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shelley’s Gem | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Samson Lee | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Canvasback | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ghost Fighter | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bucky | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Florida Flash | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dance an Irish Jig | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Filimons Quest | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Maxed Up | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Schochoh | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Luvin Bullies | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jeannie’s Beepbeep | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Intuicao (BRZ) | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Unaquoi | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dance Rhythms | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Violenza | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Crystal Lake | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mom’s Red Lipstick | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sold It | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Charmaine’s Mia | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tia Flor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | City Drifter | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Western Pharoah | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beat Duke | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Optimus Kat | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Half Cocked | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Surmont | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Back Ring Luck | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Beaucette’s Ekati | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Catipari | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kick Some Tale | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Eagle Eye | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Overdressed | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Anchorette | 30.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stay Home Mama | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sheshappy | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bold Article | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jamin’s Jet | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Some Would Say | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Pepper Grill | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Unlimiteddataplan | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lichita | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 4 | Ramsey Solution | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Midnight Tea Time | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | Split the Wickets | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Louder Than Bombs | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Cullum Road | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Net Gain | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Temple | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Spirit Animal | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Set Piece (GB) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Marzo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Ritzy A. P. | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bizzee Channel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Jareth | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Gagetown | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Gun Lap | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Name Rejected | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Cash Rocket | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Divinium | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Rockstar Ro | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Super Wise | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Aeronaut | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Savvy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hello Carlo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Audacious Antoine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.