Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 13, 2020

November 13, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 A Thousand Reasons 1.80 2.1 4-1
5 5 Nomizar 2.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Lady of Luxury 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Black Kettle 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Haynesfest 5.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 And Seek 1.60 2.5 5-1
5 5 Comedian 2.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Fast Cash 2.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Data Load 12.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Classified Info 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 Subliminalcriminal 10.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Don’t Recall 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 No Bad Days 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 2 My Name Is Phred 4.00 3.9 7-1
7 6 Make’n Tracks 2.50 4.3 8-1
8 7 Big Biz 3.00 5.1 10-1
5 4 Hex 20.00 5.9 11-1
4 3 Sonic Burn 30.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Trumpin On 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tonal Vision 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Elusive Molly 2.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Joy of Treasure 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Spun Eazy 2.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Coldwater 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Shelley’s Gem 15.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Samson Lee 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 3 Canvasback 5.00 2.2 4-1
9 8 Ghost Fighter 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 2 Bucky 6.00 3.4 7-1
5 4 Florida Flash 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Dance an Irish Jig 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Filimons Quest 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 7 Maxed Up 20.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Schochoh 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Luvin Bullies 10.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Jeannie’s Beepbeep 3.50 2.3 4-1
10 8 Intuicao (BRZ) 12.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Unaquoi 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Dance Rhythms 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Violenza 12.00 7 13-1
7 6 Crystal Lake 8.00 7 13-1
4 4 Mom’s Red Lipstick 12.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Sold It 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Charmaine’s Mia 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Tia Flor 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 City Drifter 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Western Pharoah 12.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Beat Duke 15.00 2.8 5-1
2A 2 Optimus Kat 3.00 3.5 7-1
3A 3 Half Cocked 3.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Surmont 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Back Ring Luck 2.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Beaucette’s Ekati 4.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Catipari 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Kick Some Tale 15.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Eagle Eye 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Overdressed 3.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Anchorette 30.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Stay Home Mama 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Sheshappy 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Bold Article 4.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Jamin’s Jet 12.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Some Would Say 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Red Pepper Grill 10.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Unlimiteddataplan 20.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Lichita 12.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 4 Ramsey Solution 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 1 Midnight Tea Time 6.00 4.8 9-1
13 5 Split the Wickets 20.00 6 11-1
6 2 Louder Than Bombs 12.00 7.7 14-1
7 3 Cullum Road 10.00 9 17-1
1 1 Net Gain 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Temple 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Spirit Animal 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Set Piece (GB) 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Marzo 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Ritzy A. P. 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Bizzee Channel 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Jareth 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Blue Sky Kowboy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 5 Gagetown 4.00 1.1 2-1
10 7 Gun Lap 4.00 1.1 2-1
6 3 Name Rejected 5.00 1.2 2-1
9 6 Cash Rocket 5.00 1.6 3-1
4 1 Divinium 5.00 3.9 7-1
11 8 Rockstar Ro 4.50 4.8 9-1
5 2 Super Wise 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 4 Aeronaut 20.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 War Savvy 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Hello Carlo 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Audacious Antoine 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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