Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 8, 2020

November 8, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Matt’s Honey 1.80 2.3 4-1
6 6 Dance the Day Away 5.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 My Wynter Rose 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Positive Vibes 5.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Deputy Dora 8.00 3.4 7-1
2 2 Yes I’m Evil 2.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Sundereya 10.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Peace Broker 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Sun Path 1.40 2.5 5-1
4 5 Liam’s Lass 10.00 3.1 6-1
1A 4 Forever Mesa 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Supertaleofhoudini 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 7 Ginkgo 6.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Naughty Rendezvous 2.50 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Apsara 3.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Escapeproof 3.50 4 8-1
9 8 Exaggeratedincome 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Roar of Cali 12.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Ambitiously Placed 3.50 5.6 10-1
2 2 Kentucky Pride 10.00 6.5 12-1
5 4 Class Riot 8.00 6.8 13-1
10 9 Presleys Rifle 10.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Gigi’s Gift 12.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Sacre Bleu 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Idol 2.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Excession 1.80 2.4 4-1
3 3 Parade Field 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Don Bourbon 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 5 Mulberry Street 6.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Majestic West 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Posh Princess 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Singsong Bird 4.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Settle a Score 20.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Better Biz 3.50 5.2 10-1
8 8 Etelka 5.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Sequaya 5.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Whiskarita 15.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Miss Commish 6.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Tootsie 5.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 Lil’ Shopper 20.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fulsome 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Kitten’s Firstlove 4.50 3.5 7-1
10 10 Rookie Year 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Happy Champ 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Halfbarberbingie 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Committed 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Beniah 30.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 High Press 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Bourbon Highway 15.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Tapwood 3.50 8.8 17-1
11 11 Double Tough Tiger 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Hard Knocking 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cold as Hell 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Prairie 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Windcracker 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Stay Home 5.00 2.8 5-1
9 8 Derby City 15.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Paddy O’Dini 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 May We All 8.00 5.8 11-1
14 11 Zinger 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Vivid Verse 3.50 6.7 13-1
12 10 Mine My Time 4.00 7.9 15-1
11 9 Most Mischief 20.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 Snaggletooth 12.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Albert’s Barn 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Firehorn 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dealin’ Stelen 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Carter Cat 12.00 10.8 20-1
2 2 College Party 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Can Imagine 15.00 2.3 4-1
10 9 Bigmancan 15.00 2.6 5-1
2 1 Hansens Mischief 3.50 3 6-1
3 2 Intimidation 4.50 4.1 8-1
1 6 Continental Clash 3.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Wyoming Conquest 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 5 Soaring Bird 4.00 6.3 12-1
11 10 Phast Pharoah 12.00 6.6 13-1
4 3 Subliminalcriminal 12.00 7.5 14-1
9 8 Critic 15.00 10 19-1
1A 11 And Seek 3.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Harper 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ask Bailey 2.50 2.4 5-1
5 4 My Heart Sings 15.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Timeless Rose 6.00 2.9 5-1
8 7 Evil Lyn 3.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Tynan 5.00 4.1 8-1
9 8 Mariafoot (FR) 10.00 5.7 11-1
6 5 Kourvoisier (IRE) 15.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Teenage Kicks 20.00 8.2 15-1
4 4 Windracer (IRE) 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Beautiful Trauma 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Red Hot Babe 10.00 3.3 6-1
9 8 Motown Girl 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Whispering Pines 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 My Mane Girl 8.00 5.5 10-1
10 9 Silverbella 2.50 6.3 12-1
7 6 Sconset 30.00 6.6 12-1
12 11 Bellucci 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 5 America’s Surprise 6.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Zoology 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 7 Honorable Memory 8.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Pictorial 20.00 9 17-1
13 12 Sister’s Ghost 30.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 April in Paris 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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