November 5, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pirate Rick | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon and Diem | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oceanic | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Augusta Melody | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Roux Ga Roux | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | War Detonator | 2.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bump | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Goodtime Artie | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | T J Munnings | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Saving Mama | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hickerson | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Star Mission | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beau Book | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | With It Walter | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | High Season | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Language Barrier | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Charlie’sarchangel | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Street to Indy | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hardly a Secret | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Believeinholidays | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stock Deal | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hard to Be Good | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Laddie Boy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Parking Ticket | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kiffle | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Centerfold Angel | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Merada | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kimberley Dream | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Strollin the Bayou | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shackleford County | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet N Wicked | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tempers Rising | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mercy Mercy | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Market Rumor | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hashtag Winner | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | First Course | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Matt’s Honey | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rebuff | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Alwayz Late | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Point of Infinity | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tara Hill (IRE) | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Workout | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Let’s Skedaddle | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mrs. O’Connell | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sylvia Q | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stephen’s Joy | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | McNally | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Esperer (FR) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Temper Swings | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Richebourg | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lady Clementine | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Vegas Guy | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Holy Redeemer | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Scarred | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Private Network | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ricochet | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Union Gap | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Warrior in Chief | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tap Gold | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saqeel | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Two Princes | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midlaner | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Samurai Saint | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Windcracker | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Big in the City | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Super Wise | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Crosby Street | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Its a Wrap | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Cash Now | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Groovy Lemon Pie | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rob the Rich | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fire Marshall Bill | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Haydens Havoc | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eel Point | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Equal Justice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Parlor | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Misunderstood | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Snapper Sinclair | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Score | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Made You Look | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jasikan (IRE) | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Frostmourne | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tell Your Daddy | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Real News | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Borracho | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Create a Story | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Orb’s Soul | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Duches of Grace | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blonde by Nature | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Willow | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Could You | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bow Down Tewmey | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Veiled Vixen | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Letters to Belle | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.