November 1, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Greeley and Ben | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Debating | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rare Form | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moonoverseba | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bitumen | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Queen of Verona | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gesture | 1.20 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mis Elain E Us | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Edge | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | That’s Great | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bet Your Bankroll | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Name Rejected | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ultimate | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Wayakin | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dinner Bell | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Clarestown | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Navy Pier | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Devilinthebottle | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cees Get Degrees | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Loyal Louie | 10.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Major Chance | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hillbilly Logic | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Blossom Road | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lend It Tewmey | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Raintree Starlet | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Violation | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Femme Royale | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unfading Beauty | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Honey Parade | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hetty G. | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Storming Lion | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beeboo | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Circus | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hoistthemainsail | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ames Mister | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pilot Prince | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 7 | Imperial Conflict | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Carmichael | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Brazillionaire | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Ol Grey Ghost | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11A | 6 | Thrill Ride | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7B | 5 | Briefcase Bully | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Capt. Maestri | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Defied | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Exult | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Nineeleventurbo | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Brew Crew | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Shananies Paynter | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12B | 12 | Rochambeau | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Unitedandresolute | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Skip Intro | 5.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Convention | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | King of the Nite | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Swot Analysis | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Racarino | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Test of Will | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Angkor | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Determined to Rise | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Energizer | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Girolamo’s Attack | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Answer In | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Violent City | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1A | 1 | The Big S | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kadri | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Full Authority | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Breaking News | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Romantic Pursuit | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cash Out | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | War Rose | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Singita Dreams | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Golden Curl | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Gamblin Train | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tweety Show | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Room to Finish | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Delta’s Kingdom | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Fugitive | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Canoe | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Smart Call | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jack Luvs Nova | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Monte Ne | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ahmas | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Move | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Winging Ways | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maxed Up | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Filimons Quest | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.