Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 30, 2020

October 30, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Barton Hall 4.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Decorated for Gold 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Delachaise 1.20 2.4 5-1
5 5 Double Oaked 3.00 5 9-1
4 4 Honey Bourbon 12.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Celestial Orb 6.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hard Ten 6.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Emperador 2.50 2 4-1
1 1 Twenty Twice 3.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Abaan 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Speightstown Again 4.50 4 8-1
3 3 Pledgeofallegiance 3.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Take Charge d’Oro 10.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Knight’s Cross 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Millwood 8.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Altito 6.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Candy Carlos 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 December Seven 1.20 4.3 8-1
4 4 Ransack 8.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 5 Oak Room 6.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Hawk of War 4.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Pintxos 4.00 5.1 10-1
10 6 Ahnaf 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Marsac 8.00 6.9 13-1
8 4 Criminal Defense 6.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Punch Hard 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Arion Magic (FR) 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Suggested 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Paintsville 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Defied 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mr Matuschek 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Trashtalkinyankee 3.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Elusive d’Oro 2.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 The Big Bluff 15.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Peruvian Boy 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 The Feature 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Verb 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Roman Pharoah 3.00 1.3 2-1
9 8 My Boy Gus 8.00 2 4-1
3 3 Naveen 8.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Clearly Mad 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Poirier 6.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Conformist 4.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Deceiver 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Smoothie 8.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Devilinthebottle 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 5 Auction Fever 2.50 2 4-1
7 4 Bankruptonthebeach 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 My Aunt Mims 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Spun Eazy 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Foreign Exchange 10.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Twila Mae 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sunset Promise 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Siamese 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Erv’s Wench 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Dean Martini 6.00 1.4 3-1
9 8 Night Time 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Home Base 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Nifty 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Sir Alfred James 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Straight Shot 6.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Wild Popit 20.00 5.1 10-1
7 6 Tough Love 3.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Dabo 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Silver Prospector 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 6 Casino Star 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 4 Celtic Striker 8.00 1.7 3-1
8 7 Proverb 8.00 2.1 4-1
4 3 Royal Mesa 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Multiplier 2.50 4.1 8-1
9 8 Lord Dragon 8.00 5.9 11-1
3A 2 Final Cut 15.00 7.1 13-1
2A 2 High Regard 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Saranya 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 2 Princess Theorem 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 1 Queen of the Green 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 4 Temper Time 8.00 4.7 9-1
9 5 Joy in Grace 15.00 5.5 10-1
10 6 Sweet Mary Lou 15.00 6.7 13-1
13 7 Dramatizer 20.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Regal Song 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Amortization (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Calle de Llora 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Candace O 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Palm Court 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Lady Clementine 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Illiogami 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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