October 25, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mahomes Money | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cool Rags | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Big Union | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bird Ruler | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Man On the Moon | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pollard’s Day | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Load Up Moe | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Appraisal | 4.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tenth of Gold | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shastaloo | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Army Wife | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rookery | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Best Cause | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Makeajoyfulnoise | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Silk and Sugar | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s So Cali | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Platinum Sky | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Commander | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Wild Combo | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Family Time | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malloy | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Altered Shot | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Princess Lea | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zarella | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yarmony | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grace’s Secret | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Winze | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dark Timber | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hillbilly Logic | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spicy Marg | 1.60 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Invincibility | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Skip Tewmey | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | El Casadora | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sidetown | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spend Benjamins | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nitro Time | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Clarestown | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Loyal Louie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Coach Hudson | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | King of the Nite | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ultimate | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Estes | 15.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Superman Shaq | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stayin’ Out Late | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Notable Exception | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ultimate Badger | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Meister | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Notary | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Last Samurai | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Super Quick | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Eileen Alexandra | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Clairiere | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Len Lo Lady | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ship It | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jail House Code | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Will’s Secret | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Good Penny | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mejthaam | 5.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Easy Silence | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Danger | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go Big Green | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | La Burnett | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yaba Daba Diva | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bella Conchita | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Super Sport | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Adeline | 3.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Faded Memories | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Calle de Llora | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Stephen’s Joy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Surrealist | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Rebuff | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Jewel Azul | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Vietnam | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Street Sense Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Oncoming Train | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Super Stock | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crime Spree | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | King Fury | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Franz Josef | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arabian Prince | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eucharist | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Floriform | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Grand Design | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Southern Passage | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Race Craft | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hope and Dignity | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Camp Hope | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Leblon | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mystical Man | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Business Model | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rye Sense of Humor | 4.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scarlet Fusion | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Shartle | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | All Bodes Well | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Santa Cruiser | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Rags To Riches Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Midnight Ballerina | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Orsetto | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Coach | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Traveler | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Salty as Can Be | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Bird | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dash to the Top | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Torsie’s Charm | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oliviaofthedesert | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | King’s Ovation | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Runway Magic | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Frosted Over | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Outasite | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Lake | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Tryst | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hpnotiq Rhythm | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Trump Card | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Commandeer | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Group Hug | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Foliage | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Copa | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.