October 21, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Not a Needy Gal | 3.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Illusionista | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Curlita | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Mona | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Paddy Kaye’s Wild | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Crafty Lady | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Concordsdifference | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hero of Love | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 6 | Eagle Eye | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Tkotchke | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Press Snooze | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Scorsese | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hygh I. Q. | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Passageway | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny Isle Beach | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 5 | Algebraic | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 9 | Two Worlds | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tiz Splendid News | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Madame Ready | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lady Blakeney | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dame of Malta | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Persevering | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cardioversion | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | McNally | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cadencia | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bee Fast | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lijana | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Platinum Hallway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Nota Bene | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Menzel | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Dolly Mingun | 20.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Excessive Lady | 20.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bump | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Snowblind | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Heart Rhythm | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Giant’s Gateway | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smooth Music | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Southern Will | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Coach Awesome | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Conformist | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Intrepid Heart | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Street to Indy | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lone Rock | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Harvey Wallbanger | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Thirty Five | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jungle Warfare | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Prompt | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Carpe Vinum | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Naughty Joker | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pass the Plate | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Heart Sings | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Wildlife | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Get Rewarded | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Dream (BRZ) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Golden Curl | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | O Seraphina | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Impeccable Style | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Storie Blue | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Aurelia Garland | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Never Forget | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Union Maiden | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brassy | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Saintsation | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Fortuna | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Champagne Diet | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Longpants Required | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Safari Queen | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Pythoness | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Take Charge Patti | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Captain Ginny B | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Margaret’s Joy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Leah Chase | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Teller to Sing | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.