Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 21, 2020

October 21, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Not a Needy Gal 3.00 1.9 3-1
6 5 Illusionista 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 2 Curlita 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Tale of Mona 3.00 2.4 5-1
5 4 Paddy Kaye’s Wild 2.50 2.4 5-1
7 6 Crafty Lady 12.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Concordsdifference 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Hero of Love 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 6 Eagle Eye 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 1 Tkotchke 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Press Snooze 2.50 2.6 5-1
6 5 Scorsese 6.00 4.8 9-1
5 4 Hygh I. Q. 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 3 Passageway 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Sunny Isle Beach 3.00 SCRATCH
2B 5 Algebraic 2.50 SCRATCH
7 9 Two Worlds 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tiz Splendid News 2.00 1.9 4-1
11 10 Madame Ready 5.00 3.4 6-1
10 9 Lady Blakeney 4.50 4.5 8-1
3 3 Dame of Malta 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 6 Persevering 10.00 6.6 12-1
9 8 Semble Juste (IRE) 10.00 8 15-1
4 4 Cardioversion 15.00 9.4 18-1
6 6 McNally 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cadencia 2.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bee Fast 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lijana 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Platinum Hallway 15.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Nota Bene 15.00 10.1 19-1
5 5 Menzel 15.00 10.9 21-1
12 11 Dolly Mingun 20.00 11.9 22-1
1 1 Excessive Lady 20.00 12.4 23-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bump 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Snowblind 3.00 2 4-1
8 7 Heart Rhythm 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Giant’s Gateway 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Smooth Music 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 5 Southern Will 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Coach Awesome 12.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Conformist 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Intrepid Heart 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) 4.00 2.9 6-1
8 7 Street to Indy 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Lone Rock 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Harvey Wallbanger 6.00 5 9-1
4 4 Two Thirty Five 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Jungle Warfare 8.00 6 11-1
7 7 Prompt 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Carpe Vinum 2.50 3.1 6-1
6 4 Naughty Joker 5.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Pass the Plate 2.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 My Heart Sings 12.00 5.9 11-1
8 6 Wildlife 12.00 6.6 12-1
4 3 Get Rewarded 12.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Sea Dream (BRZ) 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Golden Curl 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 O Seraphina 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Impeccable Style 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Storie Blue 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Aurelia Garland 3.50 2.9 6-1
8 8 Never Forget 3.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Union Maiden 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Brassy 15.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Saintsation 20.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Fortuna 3.00 2.5 5-1
9 6 Champagne Diet 5.00 2.5 5-1
10 7 Longpants Required 4.00 2.8 5-1
4 2 Safari Queen 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 5 Pythoness 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 3 Take Charge Patti 15.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Captain Ginny B 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Margaret’s Joy 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Leah Chase 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Teller to Sing 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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