Sports from the Basement

Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 17, 2020

October 17, 2020 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Big Story 3.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Warrens Candy Man 2.50 2 4-1
4 4 J C Express 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Play Chicken 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Discretionary Day 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Blue Star 3.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Stars of Bluegrass 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Paul L 10.00 2 4-1
3 3 Me Macho 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Starship Chewbacca 1.80 3.3 6-1
5 5 Crankin 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Cal’s Gem 2.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Bullet Times 30.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Soothing 2.50 1.3 3-1
6 6 Lavender (IRE) 1.60 1.7 3-1
1 1 Shanghai Truffles 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Solitaire 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Meso 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Sabinos Pride 15.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 September Secret 0.80 1.8 3-1
2 2 Righteously 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 4 Mucha Woman 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 5 Dancing Dana 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Exchange Vows 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Where’s Frankie 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mariah Girl (ARG) 4.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Bella Figura (IRE) 5.00 3 6-1
1 1 Y Not Sizzle 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Invincibella (GB) 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Sunriser 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 A Thousand Dreams 2.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Danceformunny 5.00 5 9-1
4 4 Miss Bennet 20.00 7 13-1
9 9 Listen to Blue 15.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Street Behavior 4.00 2.7 5-1
8 7 Gone Awol 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Hapi Hapi 1.60 4.6 9-1
1 1 Summer Fun 2.50 4.7 9-1
7 6 Vegas Moon 3.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Meadway 20.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Papa’s Honey 20.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Fort Dodge 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Factorial 4.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Gregdar 10.00 2 4-1
4 3 Kris’ Wild Kat 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Go Time 10.00 3.3 6-1
9 8 Strike It Lucky 30.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Antithetical 4.00 4.6 9-1
10 9 Combat Zone 6.00 4.8 9-1
5 4 Colt Fiction 6.00 5 9-1
6 5 Golden Image 50.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Gate Speed 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Suzie Qzz Brother 1.80 2 4-1
5 4 Moving Fast 4.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Teton Valley 3.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 Alpine Thunder 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 3 Careless Kitten 8.00 5 10-1
6 5 My Child Sbud 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 7 Club Cal 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 It’s Bedazzle Time 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Autumn Miss S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Warren’s Showtime 1.80 2.2 4-1
4 4 Guitty (FR) 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Nasty 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Croughavouke (IRE) 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Quiet Secretary 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Going to Vegas 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Mind Out 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Princess Tale 5.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Daddytellsastory 12.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 With a Whisper 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Magical Smile 20.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Save the Story 4.00 5 10-1
1 1 Nicole Grace 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Saving Sophie 1.60 5.4 10-1
3 3 Bailatino 8.00 6 11-1
8 8 Miss Mozart 12.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Mira Loma Madam 30.00 6.9 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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