Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 17, 2020

October 17, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bitumen 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Control Stake 1.40 1.7 3-1
4 4 Pat Daddy 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Batterbatterswing 3.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Event Driven 12.00 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rose of Paris 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Speightful Charge 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Funnybet 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Thomasville 3.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Areemaa 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Colonel Aby B 12.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 All Fact 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Stellar Stiletto 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 2 My Dark Secret 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 Kiffle 1.40 2.9 5-1
7 6 Champagne Bling 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Miss Pinkerton 20.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Dichotomy 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ultimate Irony 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Mechanicville 6.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Bourbon Frontier 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Catipari 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Back Ring Luck 5.00 4 8-1
4 4 Saint Vrain 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Star Mission 4.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Surmont 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 T J Munnings 15.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Great Island 2.00 2.2 4-1
9 8 More Than Unusual 5.00 3.1 6-1
10 9 Devious Charm 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 More Good Times 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Siamese 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 I Hear You 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Sunset Promise 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Woodfin 10.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Lemon Popper 12.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Audrey’s Time 20.00 7.6 14-1
13 12 Hat Tip 15.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Maga Suite 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Curly Ruth 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lemon Chill 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Widow of Nain 30.00 SCRATCH
11 10 Turnstone 50.00 12.5 24-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cool Bobby 2.00 2.6 5-1
8 7 Lonely Private 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Jessup 2.50 4.7 9-1
4 3 Box of Chocolates 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Yankee Seven 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 6 Senor Jobim 10.00 6.8 13-1
5 4 Mister K 12.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Rob the Rich 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Willful Woman 6.00 2.4 5-1
11 10 Thinking 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 3 Miss Dial 6.00 2.8 5-1
10 9 Wicked Bisou 4.00 3 6-1
3 2 Three Tipsy Chix 6.00 4.2 8-1
9 8 Caught Looking 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 7 Dottie 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 6 Bel Fiore 12.00 5.1 10-1
12 11 Miner’s Queen 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Rainbow Belle 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 5 Mia At Midnight 30.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Hippie Cowgirl 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Corelli 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 3 Midnight Tea Time 3.50 4.7 9-1
6 5 Bizzee Channel 15.00 7.2 14-1
11 10 Apreciado 12.00 7.4 14-1
10 9 Temple 8.00 7.6 14-1
9 8 Hierarchy 10.00 8.2 16-1
5 4 Counter Offer 15.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Ritzy A. P. 15.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Dontblamerocket 2.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Imperial Mission 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Spirit Animal 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Cullum Road 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Blue Sky Kowboy 20.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Sugoi 12.00 10.1 19-1
3 2 Troubling Moon 30.00 12 23-1
8 7 Net Gain 30.00 14.5 27-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lexus Raven Run S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Venetian Harbor 1.40 2.4 5-1
9 7 Grand Cru Classe 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 1 Four Graces 2.50 5.8 11-1
4 3 Finite 8.00 6.5 12-1
3 2 Secondary Market 12.00 6.5 12-1
7 6 Tonalist’s Shape 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 5 Reagan’s Edge 8.00 6.5 12-1
10 8 Secret Keeper 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Never Forget 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fair Maiden 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Quarterback Dak 2.50 4 8-1
1 1 Why Why Paul Why 5.00 4 8-1
8 8 Drink 6.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Czechmight 6.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 El Supremo 3.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Money for Mischief 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Tiz McNamara 12.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Wind Twist 20.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Fast Recovery 15.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Revenio 20.00 8.6 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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